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Dunbar, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

105
FXUS63 KGRB 231722
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog this morning will affect the morning commute. Areas of fog may develop again tonight. The fog could impact the Wednesday morning commute over portions of the area.

- Marine fog will be dense at times this morning. Marine fog may develop again tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday

Satellite and METAR observations indicate an area of dense fog has settled in across far northeast Wisconsin and creeped in across portions of central and east-central Wisconsin early this morning with a smaller area confined to portions of north-central Wisconsin. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory this morning across the areas where the densest fog has been the most persistent. These areas of fog should dissipate throughout the morning as the sun rises and turbulent mixing erodes the fog.

Later this afternoon light showers are possible (20% chance) as a mid level shortwave embedded in the cyclonic upper level flow tracks through the western Great Lakes region. Highs this afternoon are expected to range from the middle to upper 60s across north- central Wisconsin, to the lower 70s across central Wisconsin.

Abundant low level moisture will likely lead to another round of dense fog tonight, especially across north-central Wisconsin with additional low level moisture from Lake Superior. Lows tonight are expected to generally be in the 50s.

The upper low will sink south across the central Great Lakes on Wednesday, as the region remains in cyclonic flow. Showers will once again be possible as a shortwave tracks through the region with the best chance (20% chance) across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore closest to the dynamic forcing. Highs on Wednesday are expected to range from the middle 60s across the north to around 70 across central Wisconsin.

Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday

A period of low impact and quiet weather is in the forecast for the extended period starting Wednesday night through the weekend. Upper level flow during this time flattens out over our area, with predominantly zonal flow across the Great Lakes. The only potential weather maker at this time would be a low pressure system that crosses Canada to our north Friday night into Saturday, bringing a cold front through our region early on Saturday. At this time we remain dry given the timing and relative lack of moisture, but if this system shows signs of dipping southwards over the next few days, some light pops may yet work their way into the forecast. With no major air mass exchanges in the works for the extended, temperatures will hold fairly steady with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s during the day and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas of IFR/MVFR ceilings persist across northern Wisconsin early this afternoon, but diurnal warming/mixing will favor rising ceilings of the remaining stratus and diurnal cumulus. Additional MVFR to IFR stratus will likely develop overnight into Wednesday morning with gradually improving conditions again likely diurnally on Wednesday. Patchy fog may also form tonight, but confidence is low. Kept an IFR visibility at KRHI tonight with otherwise no fog mentioned for now. An isolated shower is possible this afternoon (~20% chance), but impacts will be minimal. Winds will generally remain north to northeast under 10 kts through the TAF period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurimski/Uhlmann AVIATION...JM

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion

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