Dunbar, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

302
FXUS61 KRLX 221019
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
619 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening. The
chance for showers and storms then continues through the work
week at times as multiple disturbances affect the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...
Today will be under the influence of slowly lowering heights
with a system across the Great Lakes providing an upper level
and surface trough ahead of a cold front along the midWest
moving eastward over our area throughout the day. The pattern is
weak and messy but the overall consensus is that there will
likely be abundant shower and storm activity across southeast
Ohio and northeast Kentucky and even getting into the West
Virginia counties just west along the Ohio River.
Looking at forecast soundings there is enough instability and
shear to keep updrafts going along with high moisture in the
lower and midlevel and PWATS around 1.5 inches with enough
DCAPE to promote heavy downpours which shouldn`t lead to too
much of a threat since we are very dry. However, we had issues
of flooding recently under heavy downpours, therefore we cannot
rule out instances of isolated minor to moderate flooding near
low lying or flood prone areas especially.
There is a marginal for severe out for much of the CWA but the
areas west of the Ohio River will be more likely to see stronger
to severe storms, especially since those areas will have more
instability and shear. The main threat will be damaging winds.
Pops and thunderstorm probability will increase during the
afternoon with a broken line ahead of the aforementioned
surface trough which is forecast to develop according to most
Hi-res models which will push into the area and move east during
the evening. This will bring more activity to the eastern
portions of the CWA in the evening and into the night as more
activity behind the broken line will likely be prevalent in the
overnight hours with a lull by mid to late morning.
Temperatures will be above average today which will help aid in
the development and add to the instability for fueling
thunderstorm activity and they will hover around 85 degrees for
much of the area. Partly cloudy skies will increase throughout
the day becoming mostly cloudy by the late afternoon.
Overnight temperatures will remain elevated well above average
with dewpoints sitting at around 65 degrees which is one of the
reasons why we keep PoPs on the table for the overnight hours
as that aforementioned cold front drifts closer to the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1155 PM Sunday...
Moisture will remain over the region on Tuesday with models
showing a short wave or two moving over the area. However,
models do not agree on the timing of these disturbances, leading
to confidence in precipitation, but not in the timing. Soundings
are unstable, so besides the short waves, should see afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms. Meso Nam is showing some
mid level dry air, so if we build enough CAPE, some damaging
winds could be possible.
An upper level low to our west or northwest will continue to
push moisture into the area for Wednesday. This will once again
lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with precipitation
also possible with some upper level disturbances, whose timing
varies by model.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1155 PM Sunday...
Models vary with the handling of an upper level low to our west
or northwest that then evolves into a deep trough before pushing
eastward through the region. This will push a cold front through
the area at some point, but this varies considerably by model.
The GFS is one of the slower solutions, actually keeping an
upper level low near us through the weekend and into the next
work week. Other models such as the Canadian actually push the
trough through on Friday, leaving dry weather for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...
Today, VFR conditions will be the dominant flight category.
However, under any heavier showers or thunderstorm activity
brief MVFR/IFR in VIS restrictions may happen during the
afternoon and into the evening. There will be some activity even
tonight into the overnight hours, therefore another brief
restriction may come to fruition. Other than that, a brief lull
in the mid to late morning then more activity will start up
again Tuesday morning.
CIGs will progressively lower throughout the day to where by
tonight MVFR CIGs come into play at most sites. Fog should not
be an issue with modest surface flow and cloud coverage
throughout the period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR VIS is possible with any
heavier showers or storms later today.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              MON 09/22/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion