Dunglen, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS61 KPBZ 210100 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
900 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.
A few showers and storms will be possible Sunday, but the
better chance for more widespread precipitation will arrive
later on Monday and continue through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Isolated showers/storms tonight
- Continued above normal temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------
Convection from the afternoon and early evening continues to
diminish, with cloud tops warming and radar returns decreasing.
The latest upper air analysis shows a weak shortwave trough
across Ohio. This is expected to cross the area overnight, with
isolated showers. There is still some elevated instability
progged overnight, with Showalter indices around -1, so an
isolated rumble of thunder is possible.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected for much of the
night, through some partial clearing will likely move eastward
behind the next shortwave. Patchy fog is possible where rain
occurred earlier today as well. Low temperatures are expected
to be 5 to 10 degrees above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Additional showers/storms possible later Sunday in eastern
  Ohio
- Temperatures remain above normal
----------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday`s stalled boundary is progged to lift north with increasing
southerly surface flow and given an extra kick by the aforementioned
shortwave energy. This will allow for an increase in temperatures
and dew points with a summer-like feel with mid to upper 80s for
highs and low to mid 60s for dew points. Meanwhile, modest mid-level
height falls will occur on Sunday as shortwave energy rotates
through the Great Lakes regions. This is expected to initiate
initially disorganized scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the Ohio Valley in the early to mid afternoon hours that will slide
north and east into the evening and eventually into our eastern Ohio
counties closer to sunset. Coverage and organization should increase
a bit headed into the evening hours with better deep layer shear as
a broad south/southwest 20-25 knot low level jet develops beneath
increasing veering flow up to 700 mb. HREF prob for >1000 J/kg
SBCAPE and 20 knots of deep layer shear reaches 40-50% which could
point toward a low end wind threat, though latest CAMs suggest
arrival time around sunset in our eastern Ohio Counties. SPC day 2
outlook has encompassed those counties in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for
damaging wind, but a lower severe threat is a plausible solution
in our area if arrival time does prove to be after sunset.
Additional shortwave movement will support a continued chance of
showers overnight. Warm advection with elevated southerly flow
likely means lows won`t dip out out of the 60s across the area save
north of I-80.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Measurable rain expected within the long term period
- Near average temperatures expected late week
------------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence is high that a ridge axis over the Northeast will
dissipate as a trough ejects into the Great Lakes region. This
will result in an increase in southwest flow, leading to
elevated dew points and enhanced vertical wind shear and
increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms during this
time period. As for timing, precipitation chances will increase
across the Ohio River Valley beginning early Monday morning and
persisting into Tuesday.
Through early Tuesday morning, global ensemble guidance
indicates a probability exceeding 60% for at least a quarter
inch of precipitation for areas north of Pittsburgh and into
eastern Ohio. The probability of one inch of rain is considered
low over the 24 hour time period (less than 15%). As we progress
into the mid to late week time period, the potential for
additional rainfall and near- normal temperatures is noted due
to a lingering upper-level low centered to our southwest.
Overnight low temperatures may remain 5 degrees above average
with lingering low-level moisture and increase coverage.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few showers are still moving through the southern portion of
the forecast area. These showers are expected to dissipate in
the coming hours. Locations that received precip this evening
stand the chance to see some fog development into the morning.
Those locations are LBE, MGW, and ZZV. Given the drought before
the onset, the probs are only giving 20 to 30 percent for MVFR
or below conditions late tonight. At least gave MGW a MVFR line
in the TAF.
Winds will remain light and variable overnight. Heading into the
day tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
again but the coverage will be over the western potions mainly.
Development is expected by the late afternoon and continue till
sunset. Some restrictions are expected during this time with
showers and storms passing through.
.OUTLOOK....
A series of shortwaves provide varying rain chances through the
middle of next week. While VFR is likely to be the predominant
flight category through this timeframe, periods of heavier rain
and/or patchy morning stratocu may result in MVFR restrictions.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...MLB/Shallenberger

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion