Dupuyer, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

500
FXUS65 KTFX 170431
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1031 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger through this
   evening across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
- It will warm up and dry out Wednesday through Saturday with
   windy conditions on Sunday.
- Shower chances return on Sunday to Southwestern Montana.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 830 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025/
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is quickly fading this
evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight partial
clearing and lingering surface moisture will result in patchy fog
development late tonight into Wednesday morning. The central/
southwest valleys and the river valleys over the plains will be
most susceptible to the fog development. - RCG
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 830 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
This afternoon the upper-level trough is over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring showers and
isolated thunderstorms to North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana with about seasonal averages for temperatures this
afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms will move out of North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana by this evening.
Wednesday morning in locations that receive rainfall today fog
will form. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios section for
details. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring dry
weather with temperatures warming up across the area. On Thursday
the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central and
Southwestern Montana which will keep the dry and warm weather for
the area on Thursday.
On Friday there is a quick moving upper-level shortwave trough that
moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
However, it will remain warm and mostly dry across the area. On
Saturday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana which will keep warm and dry weather for the
area. On Sunday an upper-level trough associated with a surface cold
front will move through North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This will bring shower chances to Southwestern Montana with
windy and cooler conditons for North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. The strongest winds will be along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains. -IG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is at least a 10 - 30% chance for fog Wednesday morning across
most of Southwestern Montana. On Sunday there is a 20 - 40% chance
for wind gusts of 55 mph along the plains adjacent to the Rocky
Mountain Front. On Sunday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a
60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Sunday
across North-central Montana there is a 40 - 60% chance for wind
gusts of 45 mph or greater. -IG
&&
.AVIATION...
17/06Z TAF Period
The primary concern this TAF period will be for the development of
fog by Wednesday morning across areas that have seen precipitation
recently, mainly in Central and Southwest Montana. Any fog that
develops looks to diminish by 16Z or so. VFR conditions prevail
otherwise under little cloud cover and light winds. -AM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  77  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  39  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  47  77  47  80 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  42  72  42  77 /  30   0   0   0
WYS  31  67  29  71 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  39  70  40  76 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  47  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  72  45  74 /  40   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion