Dyer, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

128
FXUS65 KVEF 190808
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
108 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Tropical moisture will fuel chances for more showers and
  thunderstorms today.
* Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger through
  the weekend, with more uncertainty next week as additional
  tropical moisture could get pulled northward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Thursday. Thunderstorms are still active as of
this typing so will keep it brief. Storms will slowly track north
through the morning, with new development possible farther south in
the dry slot this afternoon, favoring the mountains. Friday night
through the weekend should be more of a low-grade monsoon pattern,
with storms developing over the mountains in the afternoons and
dissipating after sunset. The new cutoff low developing off the
central California coast will be the wild card for the upcoming
week. If and when this low moves east, it will tap into moisture
still lingering in our area and/or pull up more moisture from the
tropics, setting off another round of showers and storms. There is a
lot of model disagreement on whether and when this happens, as well
as how far north or south the low might be if and when it occurs, so
confidence in next week`s forecast is extremely low. The main
message is that thunderstorm season isn`t quite done yet.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Lingering showers across the northern portions of the Las Vegas
Valley will continue to move north and weaken over the next few
hours.  Winds will remain light and variable overnight into tomorrow
morning before turning southeast by late morning, with speeds
expected to remain below 10 knots.  A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon, though coverage
is expected to be less than what was observed today.  Any convection
that develops should dissipate by sunset, and light winds are
expected once again tomorrow night.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue across western portions of the CWA
overnight, with CIGs holding between 8-10 kft.  Convection will
gradually decrease overnight, and improving skies are expected by
daybreak.  Scattered storms are possible again tomorrow, though most
of the activity should be confined to southern Nevada and northwest
Arizona.  Winds will generally remain below 12 knots across most
areas tomorrow, but a few gusts up to 20 knots are possible in the
Owens Valley during the afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Planz
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion