Eden, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

100
FXUS63 KABR 192314 AAA
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
614 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light to moderate rain tracking over the same area for an extended
period may result in ponding water, and may result in localized
flooding concerns through this evening.
- Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday afternoon generally
expected to be up to half an inch over northeast SD into west
central MN.
- Temperatures are expected to warm up through the weekend, with
high temperatures reaching the upper 70s on Monday, 5-10 degrees
above normal. Highs will become near-normal by the middle of next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Slow-moving low pressure center supporting showers persists today,
focused mainly over northeastern South Dakota into western
Minnesota. Rain rates continue to be fairly light, but still
monitoring the potential for flooding in that area. This area is in
fairly good shape compared to the rest of the CWA, and over the last
72 hours (ending at 12Z earlier this morning) has only seen a broad
0-2 inches of rain, with some localized areas greater than 2 inches.
Soil saturation remains in the 30% range, so concern is not high as
ranges closer to 45-50% are more conducive to flooding. Scattered
showers will stick around over this same area through Saturday, so
have held onto some slight chance PoPs through this time period.
However, areal coverage of rain is expected to be much less tomorrow
as the low continues to move out.
Fog will again be likely tomorrow morning, mainly over northeastern
South Dakota and western Minnesota. Coverage is not expected to be
widespread, but there may be localized pockets where visibility dips
below 1 mile. A Dense Fog Advisory will likely not be needed due to
the patchy nature of the lowest visibilities, but as always trends
and observations will be monitored overnight to better assess that
potential.
As this low pressure center moves out, a brief warming trend is
expected due to a weak upper level ridge building in. Lows will
remain fairly consistent through the week (lower 50s) but highs will
gradually warm to the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday, about 5-10
degrees above normal for late September. Temperatures then settle in
to be closer to normal for the rest of the week with the ridge
giving way to a positively tilted trough.
There are still slight chances for early-week rain over central
South Dakota Monday into Tuesday. The latest model runs give less of
a concern for flooding than was seen yesterday from a pure
meteorological standpoint. However, should this system come to
fruition and impact the CWA, the best chances for rain are currently
located over central South Dakota, where rain from this system has
created highly saturated soils. Therefore still keeping an eye on
flooding potential as this system draws nearer. The good news is
that there is still a lot of uncertainty on where this system will
track, and will depend quite heavily on where the positively tilted
upper level trough will set up. The GFS ensemble remains the most
favorable in terms of providing precipitation chances to the area,
as opposed to the Euro ensemble, which swings precip a bit further
south, providing lower chances over central South Dakota. Ensemble
guidance on QPF amounts also helps abate the potential flooding
threat, showing 50th percentile values of about 0.1" of accumulation
over a 24 hour period. A reasonable "worst case" scenario (90th
percentile) still only gives up to an inch of rain over 24 hours,
which would hopefully come over a long enough period as to not be
problematic for the saturated soils.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
The persistent lower and mid level low continues to spin over the
eastern Dakotas and western MN which will continue to bring light
rain showers through this evening, mainly affecting KATY/KABR.
There is still an isolated threat for light rain overnight and
Saturday for KABR/KATY. Due to low confidence on exact locations,
left out of the TAFs. MVFR/IFR cigs at KABR/KATY will continue
through midday Saturday with possible drops to LIFR overnight at
KATY and IFR at KMBG. With the ongoing low level moisture, fog
again early Saturday morning which could bring drops in
visibility, down to a mile or less in localized areas.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...MMM

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion