Edward, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

547
FXUS62 KMHX 031121
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
721 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Minor to moderate coastal impacts continue for portions of
eastern North Carolina through today. High pressure will
continue building in from the north through this weekend
bringing NE to E`rly flow to Eastern North Carolina with
seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions. Cold front
approaches for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 215 AM Friday...
Key Messages:
- Gusty NE winds gradually lessen - Coastal impacts continue
   through today (see coastal flood section)
NE`rly winds will continue through tonight given the pressure
gradient remains pinched between the departing Imelda and strong
high pressure ridging building in from the north. High is
keeping things dry outside of a few weak coastal showers
offshore as a coastal trough has developed. Steady NE`rly winds
at 5-10 mph inland with strong winds along the coast and OBX
will keep us well mixed enough to preclude a fog threat. Temps
tonight get into the low to mid 50s inland and low 60s along
the coast and OBX.
Strong surface high pressure continues to build in to the area
today but with the remnants of Imelda now very far away form
the Eastern Seaboard winds should relax quite a bit through the
day today with NE`rly winds lowering down to 10-15 mph with
gusts up around 20-25 mph along the OBX. Otherwise expecting
primarily dry weather across ENC with slight chances of rain
along the coast as the coastal trough gets closer. Highs get
into the 70s across ENC, maybe even reaching 80 in Duplin and
Onslow counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...
Key Messages:
- Coastal impacts wind down (See Coastal Flood section)
High dominates and pressure gradient lessens, allowing winds to
become light to calm inland tonight. This brings a low end
threat for patchy fog tonight. Elected to keep fog out of the
fcst for now given lower confidence, it could end up as low
stratus as well. Where winds become calm and skies remain clear,
we could radiationally cool efficiently, and used NBM10 temps
for the forecast away from the coast to reflect this. Rain
chances along the coast decrease as coastal trough shifts south
with high building in from the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the
Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern
CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue into Saturday,
then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although
a coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the
coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these
showers working their way toward the coast. Temps warm to near
normal over the weekend and early next week with highs around
80/lower 80s.
By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and a sfc
cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances
of showers across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 720 AM Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through today with high pressure building in from the north.
Early this morning, expect mostly clear skies with a few low
clouds around 4kft closer to the coast and NE winds around 5-10
kt. Today winds are less compared to yesterday as pressure
gradient weakens, gusting up to 20mph inland and 20-25 mph
along OBX. Cloud cover will be slightly greater compared to
yesterday, with ceilings hovering in the 4-5kft range. HREF
wants to show decent potential for ceilings 2-3kft in the
afternoon hours, but I think we should have enough mixing to
keep ceilings above 3kft. The exception is within any spotty weak
showers along the coast from the coastal trough, where drops in
cigs are possible. Tonight winds become light to calm inland,
allowing for low end chances for fog west of hwy 17. Guidance
has backed off a tad in the past 6 hours, with the NBM most
aggressive (which makes sense considering it tends to lag behind
by 1-2 cycles). Given the low probability for fog, stuck with
6SM for TAFs. There are also some signals for lower clouds to
develop overnight, and to introduce this I have a sct020
mentioned in the TAFs as well.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE
to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out
patchy late night fog over the weekend when winds will be
weaker and low levels decouple overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 250 AM Friday...
Key Messages:
- Winds continue decreasing but elevated seas continue through
   the period
- Coastal trough brings chance of showers today
Latest obs show widespread NE`rly winds at about 15-25 kts with
gusts up around 25-30 kts early this morning as a result of the
strong pressure gradient between an incoming high pressure
system and the departing remnants of Imelda. In addition to
this, seas across our coastal waters remain hazardous with 7-11 ft
seas noted. Expect elevated marine conditions to continue
especially across our coastal waters even as conditions
gradually ease through the remainder of the period. Winds are
forecast to ease today to 15-20kts gusting up to 25 kts with
the strongest gusts likely along our coastal waters and near the
Gulf Stream. Seas will also begin to gradually lower through
the period falling to 5 to 9 ft through today. and 4 to 8 feet
tonight. While remaining inland small craft advisories will fall
off this morning, small crafts across all coastal waters will
continue through the end of the period given the elevated wind
and seas.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 1 AM Thursday...High pressure migrates offshore over the
weekend with easterly winds around 15 kt or less through Monday,
then veers to SE on Tuesday. Seas around 4-8 ft on Saturday
will slowly subside through the long term. Seas expected to
drop below 6 ft by Saturday north of Oregon Inlet, however 4-7
ft seas expected to continue across the waters south of Oregon
Inlet through Monday, finally dropping below 6 ft on Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 2 AM Friday...Long period swell and NE winds are causing
minor to moderate coastal flooding along the OBX and this will
continue through this evening. Persistent NE winds will lead to
minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern
Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers through this evening.
Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect.
Oceanside...Lingering powerful long period swell from the
combination of ex-hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will persist
across ENC beaches through this afternoon, bringing dangerous
rip currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal
flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant impacts
continue to be across Hatteras Island where 2 to 3 ft AGL of
inundation is possible through Friday evening around times of
high tide given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2
ft of inundation is possible across Ocracoke where the swell
direction and offshore winds will keep impacts more minor.
Soundside...NE winds will continue to subside today but elevated
water levels expected to continue into this evening with 1-2 ft
of inundation possible along the southern Pamlico Sound,
Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ080-
     094-194-196-204.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion