328 FXUS64 KLCH 261114 AFDLCHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 614 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry continental airmass will allow for rain free conditions along with slightly cooler highs / lows through the weekend.
- Dry weather is favored through the middle of next week as modest high pressure builds over the forecast area accompanied by offshore breezes.
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.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
An upper level trough axis has now shifted east of the Mississippi with the expectation it will fill briefly over the Ohio Valley during the next couple days. Locally, a light northerly regime is in place as the associated cold front migrates southeast offshore. Main notable change in the pattern aside from lack of precipitation will be cooler evening lows throughout the forecast period. Despite, an expansive region of high pressure descending across the Southern Plains, surface pressure will remain broad. Nearby subtropical ridging will help keep the upper level pressure gradient from becoming slack while entraining dry air from the north. Temperatures will trend in the mid to upper 80`s with mostly sunny skies through the weekend. Modest ridging is forecast to remain in the area during this period keeping chances of rain NIL.
Kowalski / 30
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.LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
By Monday, conditions still appear to remain dry across the forecast area. The aforementioned upper level trough over the Ohio valley is expected to close off and meander around the TN Valley early next week. This feature will abut the upper level ridge extending across Texas enhancing northerly flow aloft. At this time, surface flow continues to trend offshore which will help preclude any possibility of rainfall. Temperatures will hedge toward climatological norms in the upper 80`s. Come the middle of next week, the ridge above shows signs of building east over the ARKLATEX region keeping conditions dry locally. Highs will tick upwards a few degrees by the mid week with lower 90`s being common. Additionally, lows will also moderate upwards to the mid/upper 60`s.
Kowalski / 30
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Thin and patchy ground fog may occur this morning, otherwise mostly VFR through the period.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A frontal boundary will continue to push through the Gulf waters through this morning. Winds will remain out of the north to northeast through the next several days, generally remaining 15 knots or less with seas 1-2 feet.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
High pressure along with northerly winds will build in today and persist over the area through Tuesday. This will bring relatively drier air to the local area for the next few days, with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 40s.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 85 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 85 65 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 86 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 87 65 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
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.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05
NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion