El Vado, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS65 KABQ 272000
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
200 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1259 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- A storm system will draw subtropical moisture northward over
  northern and central New Mexico with scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms through Sunday, then some lingering
  showers and thunderstorms with lighter precip along and east of
  the central mountain chain on Monday.
- Additional rain amounts from the central high plains to the
  continental divide and Four Corners area should reach around
  0.10 to 0.60 of an inch, with locally higher amounts over an
  inch along and just east of the central and south central
  mountains, and lighter amounts elsewhere.
- There will be an ongoing flash flood threat below the burn scars
  in the Ruidoso area until 9 PM Sunday evening.
- After a cool start to the coming week, dry and warmer conditions
  are expected Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
An upper level low pressure system stalled over the CA/AZ border
will continue to draw subtropical moisture northward across the
forecast area with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
tonight through Monday. Additional rain amounts around 0.10-0.60"
should be common from the central high plains westward to the
continental divide and the Four Corners, with lighter amounts
elsewhere. Locally higher amounts over an inch will be possible,
especially along the central and south central mountains, as well
as their adjacent east slopes. There should be a lot of cloud
cover on Sunday, so forecast high temperatures a few degrees below
NBM guidance; especially over central parts of the forecast area.
Will continue the ongoing Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area
burn scars until 9 PM Sunday. The risk of heavy rainfall will
decrease areawide thereafter as the upper low opens into a trough
and exits gradually eastward across the forecast area with drier
air entering from the west. Monday will bring a little more
sunshine and a noticeable downtick in shower and thunderstorm
coverage, with most of the activity favoring the continental
divide to the east slopes of the central mountain chain. There may
be some patchy fog along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain early Sunday morning, then the coverage of fog and low
clouds will probably increase across central parts of the forecast
area late Sunday night until mid morning Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
There is a good chance that some patchy fog will return to central
parts of the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
During the middle of next week, a ridge of high pressure will
build northward over New Mexico causing high temperatures to
climb as much as 11 degrees above 30-year averages by Thursday.
Southwest winds will probably become gusty on Friday as an upper
level trough deepens over the southwest US.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Scattered to numerous showers will continue today through Sunday
evening. Extensive cloud cover has stabilized the atmosphere
enough to limit the number of embedded thunderstorms so far
today, but storm coverage will likely increase this afternoon and
continue into the evening. A few storms should be capable of
producing erratic wet microburst wind gusts up to 45 KT. Late
tonight into Sunday morning, high res models depict a fairly
persistent stream of rain showers in the vicinity of the central
mountain chain. Easterly upslope flow will probably produce areas
of MVFR conditions in low clouds, and perhaps some patchy fog,
early Sunday morning east of the central mountain chain (not as
far east as the TX border).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Wetting precip will probably be pretty spotty over the far eastern
plains with the passing storm system this weekend. Dry air will
filter over the state in the wake of the storm system as a ridge
of high pressure builds northward over NM midweek, but minimum
humidities are forecast to remain above 15 percent areawide.
Southwest wind gusts may reach the 15-25 mph range on Friday
afternoon, especially over the mountains and northeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  73  53  73 /  70  60  40   5
Dulce...........................  42  67  42  70 /  70  70  60  40
Cuba............................  46  65  45  68 /  70  80  70  50
Gallup..........................  45  70  42  71 /  50  50  30   0
El Morro........................  45  67  42  68 /  60  60  50  20
Grants..........................  46  68  44  71 /  70  80  60  30
Quemado.........................  45  71  42  71 /  30  50  30  10
Magdalena.......................  50  66  50  68 /  60  80  60  50
Datil...........................  46  66  45  68 /  50  70  40  30
Reserve.........................  45  75  44  77 /  30  30  20  10
Glenwood........................  50  79  49  80 /  40  20  10  10
Chama...........................  42  63  40  65 /  60  80  50  60
Los Alamos......................  51  62  49  66 /  60  80  70  60
Pecos...........................  48  61  45  66 /  70  80  70  50
Cerro/Questa....................  46  66  44  68 /  40  60  30  40
Red River.......................  38  57  37  59 /  40  70  30  50
Angel Fire......................  34  60  32  63 /  30  70  30  50
Taos............................  45  68  43  70 /  40  70  40  40
Mora............................  43  61  40  65 /  50  80  50  60
Espanola........................  52  70  50  74 /  60  80  60  40
Santa Fe........................  52  63  49  68 /  70  80  70  50
Santa Fe Airport................  50  66  48  70 /  60  80  70  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  70  55  72 /  80  90  80  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  72  55  74 /  70  80  70  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  74  55  76 /  70  80  70  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  71  55  75 /  70  80  70  30
Belen...........................  53  73  53  76 /  70  80  70  30
Bernalillo......................  55  72  54  76 /  70  80  80  30
Bosque Farms....................  53  73  52  76 /  70  80  70  30
Corrales........................  55  73  55  76 /  70  80  80  30
Los Lunas.......................  54  73  53  76 /  70  80  70  30
Placitas........................  54  67  52  71 /  70  80  80  40
Rio Rancho......................  55  71  54  75 /  70  80  80  30
Socorro.........................  56  74  55  77 /  70  70  60  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  63  48  68 /  70  90  80  50
Tijeras.........................  51  65  49  69 /  70  90  80  50
Edgewood........................  47  64  46  69 /  70  80  80  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  65  45  70 /  80  90  70  50
Clines Corners..................  48  61  46  66 /  70  80  70  50
Mountainair.....................  49  65  48  69 /  70  80  70  60
Gran Quivira....................  49  65  48  69 /  70  80  70  60
Carrizozo.......................  55  68  53  71 /  70  90  70  60
Ruidoso.........................  50  59  48  64 /  70  90  70  70
Capulin.........................  48  67  46  68 /  20  20   5  20
Raton...........................  47  69  45  71 /  30  40  10  30
Springer........................  50  69  46  73 /  30  50  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  48  61  45  67 /  60  80  50  50
Clayton.........................  55  76  53  75 /  20  10   0   5
Roy.............................  52  68  50  70 /  30  50  20  30
Conchas.........................  57  73  55  77 /  40  50  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  54  68  53  73 /  60  70  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  55  75  53  76 /  30  30  10  10
Clovis..........................  58  79  56  78 /  30  20  10  10
Portales........................  59  79  57  78 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  58  72  56  76 /  50  50  30  20
Roswell.........................  60  71  58  78 /  50  60  30  20
Picacho.........................  55  69  53  73 /  60  80  50  50
Elk.............................  51  66  50  70 /  60  90  50  50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion