Eldred, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

076
FXUS63 KFGF 270434
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fire weather potential increases through next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Scattered high based showers/thunderstorms developed near the
International Border as the cold front pushed east, matching the
timing/depiction from CAMs and only minor adjustments were
necessary. DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/KG with a dry mixed layer
above the surface inversion did raise concerns for localized
strong wind gusts, but ultimately the surface stable layer
appears to have held as strongest reported gusts under that
activity hasn`t been any different than with the frontal passage
(25-38 mph).
UPDATE
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The cold front is progressing eastward and light returns on
radar associated with mid/high level clouds along the frontal
zone are likely just virga as there remains a deep dry mixed
layer. Winds are shifting to the northwest, with highest post
frontal winds 25-35 mph. There is still a signal for high based
showers in our northeast CWA (far northwest MN) along with just
enough instability to monitor for dry lightning impacts. Minor
adjustments were made to near term trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...Synopsis...
Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front stretching
from Willow City down through west of Bismarck, progressing
eastward this afternoon. As this front progresses eastward,
forcing may be enough to generate showers and a few
thunderstorms this evening and overnight, particularly closer to
the international border. Instability is largely boundary-layer
based so organized convection is unlikely to develop.
Additionally, mid-level moisture content is very poor so it is
more likely than not we will see virga instead of showers and
thunderstorms. Regardless, impacts will be fairly minor and
mainly tied to lightning along the international border.
Large scale ridging will linger through next week, giving above
normal temperatures and increasing risk for fire weather
conditions to develop.
...FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
With the aforementioned above normal temperatures through next
week combined with elevated flow aloft, the potential for fire
weather to become more of an impact is increasing. While it is
still early in the season, indicated by high HRB, ERC values are
beginning to rise but remaining mostly below the 60th
percentile. Dry weather will continue to linger for the period
with wetting rain very unlikely, so expect multiple days of low
relative humidity in the 20s and 30s through mid-week.
Generally, the bulk of ensemble guidance has the reasonable
worst case scenario for relative humidity in the mid-20s,
particularly Saturday and Sunday at this time (although this
could extend through next week as higher resolution CAMs start
entering the NBM). Expect at least mid 30s to develop with some
spots getting into the mid 20s this weekend.
While the signal for lower relative humidity is strong, there
isn`t a particularly strong signal for wind speeds to reach
critical criteria at this time. For this reason, the probability
for red flag conditions to develop is very low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN, with a very dry air mass in place.
A cold front has already pushed east into northwest MN with a
narrow LLJ resulting in a brief period of gusty west-northwest
winds and low level wind shear early in the TAF period.
Prevailing winds eventually drop below 12kt for most locations
as the front and LLJ shifts east early in the TAF period.
Surface high pressure builds into SD and shifts east, with at
least some gradient and decent afternoon mixing supporting gusts
15-20kt Saturday across parts of northeast ND and far northwest
MN. These winds eventually decrease and shift to the south-
southwest late afternoon/early evening as the high pressure
transitions into southern MN and daytime mixing ends. Prevailing
winds should remain under 10kt in southeast ND and west central
MN after winds decrease this morning due to the proximity of
the surface high pressure.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion