Elgin, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

182
FXUS65 KVEF 212144
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
244 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected generally south
  and east of Interstate 15 this afternoon through tonight.
* Precipitation chances linger each day through the upcoming week
  due to anomalous moisture and periodic disturbances moving
  across the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A cutoff low continues churning off of the Central California
Coast, maintaining southwesterly flow aloft and allowing for
continued entrainment of the moisture remnants from Tropical Storm
Mario. A subtle jet rounding the base of this trough and an
associated vorticity maxima moving over southern portions of the
forecast area today and tonight will facilitate another round of
showers and thunderstorms, with cloud cover already overspreading
the region from south to north. The best chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be south and east of I-15 across
portions of San Bernardino, Mohave, and southern Clark Counties,
with lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rain the primary
concerns, especially for storms that develop over the higher
terrain. Convective activity will linger through much of the
night, gradually shifting south and east through the early morning
hours on Monday.
Looking ahead, the aforementioned low off of the California Coast
will remain the primary feature of concern, though uncertainty
regarding its evolution somewhat muddles the forecast. Anomalous
moisture (roughly 100-150% of normal) will remain over the region
ahead of this low, with any subtle shortwaves embedded in the
southwesterly flow aloft warranting at least a slight chance
mention of precipitation across the area each day through the
upcoming week. Ensembles continue to differ on the timing and
trajectory of this low as it eventually moves inland toward the
latter half of the work week, though once it finally translates
eastward, precipitable water values are progged to ramp up closer
to 150-200% of normal. However, uncertainty regarding its
evolution as well as uncertainty regarding how much moisture will
be sapped by the windward side of the Sierra lends to a lower
confidence forecast. Regardless, the continued presence of
moisture will keep rain chances in the forecast, as well as serve
to keep temperatures near and below normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Elevated and intermittently gusty southwesterly winds
are expected through mid evening, with sustained speeds around
10-12KT and gusts to 15-20KT. Gusts diminish thereafter, with
winds then veering to the west and becoming light and variable
overnight. By early Monday afternoon, winds shift to the east with
sustained speeds under 8KT, then to the southwest after sunset.
VFR conditions prevail with SCT-BKN ceilings around 15kft, and
while isolated showers may develop along the Peach Spring
corridor this evening into tonight, no precipitation is
anticipated in the Las Vegas Valley.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds will generally
follow typical diurnal directional patterns across the region.
Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds are expected through early
to mid evening, with gusts to around 20KT. Showers are moving
into the Colorado River Valley/southern Mohave County/eastern San
Bernardino County, and will persist through much of the night.
Confidence is low for this activity to have much northward extent,
and while thunderstorms are possible, particularly at KEED, low
probability and isolated coverage precludes mention at this time.
Elsewhere, there is a low probability of showers across the Owens
Valley through early evening, however confidence is too low to
include VCSH mention at KBIH. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail
with SCT-BKN ceilings around 15kft overspreading the region, with
slightly lower ceilings in the vicinity of showers.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Phillipson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion