Ellenton, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

835
FXUS62 KTAE 300050
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
850 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
No updates made to the forecast this evening. Additional low-level
clouds like last night will again roll into the area from the
northeast overnight leading to overcast skies by morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The moist east flow around the north side of Tropical Storm Imelda
continues to bring in cloud cover and widely scattered light
showers this afternoon. The showers will largely fade this
evening, but another stratus deck will move into the area again
tonight. This will keep lows rather warm in the upper 60s to lower
70s. While there won`t be quite as much moisture tomorrow to work
with, mostly cloudy skies with isolated light showers will still
be possible. The best chance (20-30% will be near the I-75
corridor into the Suwannee Valley. Nudged highs down a degree or
two with highs mostly in the mid 80s for Tuesday given the cloud
cover and persistent northeasterly flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
As Imelda turns out to sea, a backdoor cold front moves south
through our area Wednesday. Wednesday will see generally less
stratus as moisture decreases, so highs will be in the upper half
of the 80s. Thursday, behind the front, cooler air tries to make
its way down from the Appalachians. It doesn`t quite look like a
stratus/cold air wedge setup yet on Thursday, so highs will still
be in the low to mid 80s.
Beyond Thursday, the cold front stalls to the south of our marine
area and high pressure really establishes itself over the
Appalachians and Northeast US. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave
over the western Gulf will impart southwesterly flow aloft above
the surface northeast flow. This is usually a more classic
stratus/cold air damming setup for us, and there is the potential
the highs could bust on the high side heading into the weekend.
Right now, forecast highs are generally in the low to mid 80s, but
global models at this juncture usually don`t handle ambient
conditions in these scenarios well. For now, have started nudging
highs downward from guidance, but we could very well see highs
struggle to get out of the 70s, especially over southern Georgia,
where there is about a 50/50 shot at this.
The tight pressure gradient between our high to the north and
front to our south will result in breezy conditions heading into
the weekend. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be common each afternoon from
Thursday through the weekend.
A weak inverted trough or area of low pressure may develop along
the front over the weekend, which will send more moisture back
into our area and increase rain chances. Right now, it appears
this will be more stratiform rain rather than thunderstorms with
the front to our south. While heavy rain is not expected, we`ll
keep an eye on things just in case the front wobbles back to the
north near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A stratus cloud deck looks to move across the region from the
northeast. It looks to hang around through much of the overnight
hours and most, if not all, of the morning hours tomorrow. We`ll
see the cloud deck begin to lift and breakup throughout the
afternoon. MVFR to IFR cigs could be possible with this stratus
cloud deck.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Impactful marine conditions are expected later this week. There is
about a 60-90% chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions beginning
as early as Wednesday night and continuing through the weekend.
There is also about a 10-20% chance of gale-force gusts each night
from Thursday night to Saturday night in the nocturnal surges.
From CWF Synopsis: Moderate to fresh north to northeast breezes
will continue for the next couple days with nocturnal surges
resulting in cautionary conditions. A cold front moves through the
marine area Wednesday into Thursday, which will increase winds to
near advisory level. The front stalls to our south, and the
pressure gradient tightens between it and the large sprawling high
building to the north. This will result in a prolonged period of
small craft advisory conditions with gusts to near 30 knots. Seas
will also build from 2 to 4 feet early in the week to 5 to 8 feet
late in the week into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Northeasterly transport winds around 15-20 mph will continue over
the next several days. Mixing heights will gradually increase day by
day, leading to increasing dispersions by Wednesday and Thursday
with high dispersions possible Thursday afternoon. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday, which will bring a shot of drier
air to the region with min RH values dropping into the mid to upper
30s. Winds will also increase Thursday and beyond, which may
increase fire weather concerns late in the week into the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Outside of light showers over the next day or two, no significant
rainfall is anticipated until this weekend. A front stalls to our
south late in the week into the weekend, which may increase rain
chances, but most likely totals remain under an inch for the most
part. As of now, flooding is not expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  85  68  86 /  20   0   0   0
Panama City   69  86  70  87 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        67  83  66  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        69  83  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      69  83  66  86 /  10  20   0   0
Cross City    70  86  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  70  84  70  84 /  20   0  10  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion