Ellenton, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS62 KTAE 201806
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
206 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The combination of a very weak shortwave trough, the afternoon sea
breeze, and generally dry air will lead to only a few very isolated
showers and storms this afternoon, similar to previous days. But,
it will be quite hot this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper
90s. Any showers or storms that manage to develop this afternoon
will fade after sunset. Some patchy fog is possible tonight,
mainly in the Florida counties up into Valdosta. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
On Sunday, another shortwave moves into the lower Mississippi
Valley with dry air trying to push in from the east. This will
keep isolated showers and storms mostly along and west of the
Choctawhatchee River basin tomorrow afternoon with rain chances
around 20-30%. The rest of the area likely remains dry. Highs
will still be warm by late September standards, climbing into the
lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Another weak shortwave moves across the area Monday, but with some
drier air lingering in place, very isolated showers and storms at
most would be expected, mainly in the eastern Big Bend. Otherwise,
it stays hot and dry through Wednesday as a weak mid-level ridge
tries to nose in from the west south of a strongly positively-
tilted trough from the Great Lakes into the Plains. Highs climb
back to the mid-90s by Wednesday with very low rain chances.
Later in the week, the aforementioned trough to our north poses a
tricky forecast and model solutions differ greatly still on the
evolution and placement. Cluster analysis via GFS/Euro/Canadian
ensembles has about two-thirds of the solutions showing some form
of rex block pattern late next week with the trough cutting off
south of a ridge over southern and eastern Canada. The other third
of solutions is more progressive and doesn`t cut off the western
end of the trough. A farther south and/or cut off solution would
generally favor better rain chances in our area late week, but a
farther north and/or more progressive solution will keep the
better rain chances well to our north. Regardless, while rain
chances do increase late week to around 40-50%, it`s still of low
confidence. Most likely rainfall totals are around half an inch
through the end of the week, but the reasonable low-end potential
amounts are around a tenth of an inch with a reasonable high-end
around 1-1.25 inches.
High temperatures will fall back into the upper 80s with lows in
the upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. A few SHRA,
maybe a TS, are possible near TLH where a PROB30 was introduced
for this afternoon. Otherwise, some patchy fog is possible near
VLD Sunday morning, and have introduced a tempo for this
possibility.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Winds will clock around from the southwest to out of the east by
late tonight into Sunday as high pressure shifts eastward over the
Appalachians. Winds for the most part will remain light to gentle,
though some moderate easterly surges are possible, mainly Sunday
and Monday nights. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. Winds
become more southerly to southwesterly ahead of an approaching
cold front late in the upcoming week with an increased chance for
scattered showers and storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated showers and maybe a storm or two will be possible this
afternoon near the sea breeze along and south of I-10. A few more
showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mostly in the far
western Florida Panhandle. Otherwise, high dispersions are expected
Sunday afternoon over the Big Bend into the I-75 corridor of south
Georgia. Min RH values will drop into the low to mid 30s Sunday
before gradually rising through the week. Elevated fire concerns
continue thanks to drying fuels and worsening drought conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Any rainfall that falls over the next 5 days will be very isolated
and rather light. Mid to late next week, better rain chances
return, but rain amounts vary significantly. Regardless, at this
point it doesn`t appear that this will be a drought-busting
rain event with most likely totals being around 0.25 to 0.75
inches. The high end rainfall totals are around 1-1.25 inches,
which is still not quite enough to alleviate the drought. And
there`s a low-end possibility that we miss most of the rain with
the 10th percentile rainfall around a tenth of an inch.
Given the very hot temperatures, lower humidity, and general lack
of appreciable rainfall, drought conditions continue to worsen
across the area, in some cases, rapidly. Until a good soaking rain
occurs, drought conditions will keep worsening as we enter our
driest months climatologically.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   73  90  72  90 /   0  20   0  10
Dothan        68  92  67  92 /   0  10   0   0
Albany        68  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    67  92  69  92 /  10   0   0  20
Apalachicola  73  86  74  85 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion