Ellicott, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS65 KPUB 161944
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
144 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool front coming through later today will bring increasing chances
  of convective rain showers to the region through the next 24
  hours.
- A few strong storms later this afternoon and late tomorrow
  afternoon/evening
- Cooler tomorrow plains.
- Warmer and drier weather returns from Friday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Currently...
surface cyclone was evolving over the eastern plains of Colorado in
the vicinity of KLIC. northeast surface winds were developing in
response to this cyclone over northeast CO, although the actual cool
front was best indicated over southeast WY. Radar was becoming more
active, especially over the higher terrain and along a sfc trough
over the far eastern plains extending from just east of Lamar down
towards Kim.
Rest of Today...
Best chance of precip, some heavy and possibly strong to severe,
will be along the sfc trough over the far eastern plains. All short
range guidance shows quite of few showers and storm over this
region through the remainder of the day. Other storms will continue
to develop over the higher terrain and move east, with the most
favored area being the Pikes Peak region later this afternoon. OVer
the remainder of the region, scattered storms will be possible.
Tonight...
Guidance is not in overall good agreement tonight as some guidance
indicates a couple of bands of convective showers moves through
(lasting into the late night hours) while other guidance has one
main band move through and clears the region by midnight. With
troughing aloft lagging, I would expect we will see shower last
through the overnight hours, especially over the far easter plains
late tonight.
Tomorrow...
It will be cooler and (initially) more stable over the region,
especially the plains. Temps tomorrow will be a good 5 to 10F cooler
tomorrow, however upslope will be in place by tomorrow afternoon.
an expect showers and storms to develop along the mtns/plains
interface late in the day and then move east over the plains in the
evening. Enough instability and shear will be in place and we will
once again see the possibility of a few stronger storms over the
fcst area over the plains late in the day into the evening hours.
/Hodanish
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Upper trough moves east into the plains on Thursday as upper
level ridge begins to build back into Colorado. Still enough
lingering moisture for some weak to moderate convection Thursday
afternoon, though with best dynamic lift shifting east and
better moisture/instability well south, suspect coverage of
storms will be mainly isolated, bringing gusty winds but only
light rainfall. Temps will begin to recover slightly as
heights/mid level temps rise, though most areas will see maxes a
little below seasonal averages another day.
Upper ridge builds Fri/Sat, bringing back drier and warmer
weather to the region, though just enough moisture may sneak
into the state from the sw to generate some afternoon t-storms,
especially along/west of the Continental Divide on Saturday. Max
temps will climb back to slightly above average levels both
Fri/Sat. Ridge flattens a bit on Sun/Mon a weak upper level
energy slips by to the north, keeping just a slight chance for
afternoon thunderstorms on Sunday, while temps remain on the
warmer side of average.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A cool front will move over the KCOS and KPUB taf sites late
this afternoon and early evening. As this front crosses the
region, showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
after the front goes by. gusty winds and a period of MVFR will
be possible. The storm threat should last for 2 to 3 hours,
before skies clear. Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions during
the remainder of the time period.
KALS should be VFR next 24 hours.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion