Ellsworth Afb, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

447
FXUS63 KUNR 271756
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1156 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry with above average temperatures through Thursday
- Gusty southerly winds at times through Monday
- Elevated fire weather conditions at times
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
07z surface analysis had weak high pressure over the CWA with
little evidence of clouds overhead. Water vapour loop had upper
trough shifting into the Great Lakes as upper ridge rebounds into
the northern Rockies and upper low spins over southern CA.
Today through Monday, upper ridges moves through the northern
plains and then Midwest as thermal ridge builds back into the
area. Southwest flow aloft develops on backside of ridge by
Monday. Lee surface trough strengthens with decent gradient ahead
of it supporting gusty southerly winds, particularly over the
western SD plains. Wind gusts will flirt with advisory criteria
during peak mixing over northwest SD today and then east of the
Black Hills for Sunday/Monday. Probability of gusts >45mph 90F
50-90% east of the Black Hills.
Tuesday/Wednesday, southwest flow aloft continues as upper trough
becomes established over the northwest CONUS. This trough then
moves into the northern Plains for the end of the week into next
weekend, but timing may slowed by upper ridge over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Trend will be cooler temperatures and
increasing PoPs, but substantial QPF chances low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1153 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Expect VFR conditions through the period. Gusty southerly winds
with peak gusts around 25-30 kts are possible through this
evening. These gusts may sporadically persist through the
overnight, but confidence is low due to nocturnal low-level
stabilization.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 155 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Elevated fire danger continues through Monday as sustained dry
and unseasonably warm weather continues. Gusty southerly winds
will develop, especially over northwestern SD this afternoon and
east of the Black Hills Sunday/Monday. MinRH in the 20s expected
with some 30s over central South Dakota Monday. High to very high
grassland fire danger expected through the period over portions of
the western SD plains.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Melo
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion