Emrick, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

328
FXUS63 KBIS 021954
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
254 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees above normal
  temperatures are expected today, with a larger spread likely
  on Friday.
- Low probability of isolated severe weather Friday into
  Saturday.
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are likely this weekend.
- Cooler temperatures return Saturday in the north and west,
  with temperatures dipping slightly below normal across the
  state early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
An upper level ridge across Eastern CONUS has lead to increased
heights over the Northern Plains. Therefore, warm above normal
temperatures continue across the region today. High temperatures
are forecast to sit in the 80s this afternoon. Overnight
temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 50s.
Friday will also be a very warm day as the top of low level
thermal ridge passes across the southern half of the state.
Thus, high temperatures Friday across the south are forecast to
be in the mid to upper 80s while the north will see
temperatures in upper 70s. Southerly return flow Friday will
bring forth breezy conditions across the southeast and south
central.
The upper level ridge will continue progress eastward toward the
end of the week, while a broad upper level trough deepens out
over Western CONUS progressing into the Central Plains. The CSU
machine learning program has low probabilities for isolated
severe weather Friday and Saturday. Forecast soundings Friday
show increased instability around 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE and
30 to 40 kts of 0-6 km shear. However, there is a pretty impress
cap that will likely hinder storm development Friday. We will
have to see if the forcing mechanism, the upper level trough,
reaches the area to align with the greatest instability. If
convection does form it will likely be elevated with damaging
winds and large hail being the main threats.
The aforementioned upper level trough is forecast to move across
the Northern Plains this Saturday through Sunday bringing
widespread precipitation to North Dakota. Moderate to heavy rain
could lead to localized street flooding. The NBM has around 50
percent of 1 inch of rain in the south central up to Devils Lake
Basin. The NBM probabilities have increased from the last two
runs increasing the size of the area that could see up to an
inch of rain. Heavy rain is certainly possible with this system
as PWATs are around 1 to 1.3 inches. The NBM even has some low
probabilities around 15 percent for 2 inches of rain. This
system will bring in slightly below normal temperatures back to
the region Sunday and Monday before warming back up to near
normal by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will continue across the region for the next 24
hours. Light winds will generally veer out of the south by this
evening. Skies will remain relatively clear with a few high
clouds.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion