123 FXUS63 KLMK 300712 AFDLMKArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 312 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Continued dry and warm weather expected through the week.
* With several days of dry weather, drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
An upper level ridge will slowly translate eastward over the Midwest and western Great Lakes through tonight. NE flow aloft will sling thin high clouds over the Bluegrass Region late this morning into the afternoon. We`ll also see some SCT afternoon cumulus develop once again. Otherwise, mainly clear skies will be common through this forecast period.
At the surface, strong high pressure will continue to slide east over Ontario. Its influence will stretch through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. It will be another dry day with warm afternoon temps and low humidity. NE winds will increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon during peak mixing. Temperatures should max out just a degree or two cooler than yesterday: a lot of mid 80s with the warmest spots in the upper 80s.
Winds will quickly diminish with sunset this evening, with mainly clear skies overnight and lows in the mid 50s to near 60.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Dry weather is likely to persist through this weekend. In general, upper level ridging lingers over the region during this time frame. Strong sfc high pressure starting over Quebec on Wednesday builds south over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with time.
By Sunday into Monday, we should start seeing better southerly moisture transport into the region upstream of strong ridging over the East Coast. Early next week, model guidance suggests a cold front will attempt to push southeast through the Midwest. The influx of moisture ahead of this frontal boundary could bring some rain showers back to the region Monday into Tuesday. However, confidence in the forecast details (timing, amounts) is low. Highs in the low to mid 80s will be common, with lows in the 50s.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions continue. Mainly clear skies with very light NE to calm winds early this morning. East-central KY, including LEX/RGA, will see more SCT thin cirrus from late Tue morning into the afternoon hours. We`ll also see some SCT afternoon cu around 6 kft. NE winds will again increase to near 10 kt this afternoon, with brief gusts to 15+ kts possible during peak afternoon mixing.
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.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None.
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SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...EBW
NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion