Eureka, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

308
FXUS63 KICT 102335
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Festering showers and storms this afternoon. No strong or
  severe storms expected.
- Dramatic warm up for the end of the week and weekend. First
  90-degree temperatures since approximately 3 weeks ago.
- Rain chances return this weekend.&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Early this afternoon, a weak MCV drifting eastward along the I-70
corridor is sustaining a few showers with occasional thunder across
portions of central, eastern, and southern Kansas. Coverage is a bit
spotty, but some locations have picked up at least a tenth of an
inch of rainfall this morning/early this afternoon. This activity is
gradually weakening, and should move eastward and continue
dissipating this afternoon and evening.
A fairly strong mid/upper ridge is set to build into the central
plains throughout the afternoon and nighttime hours.
Consequentially, subtle mid-level WAA may drive additional isolated
showers and storms across portions of the Flint Hills during the
overnight hours and into early Thursday morning. Mid-level
temperatures continuing to warm through the morning hours on
Thursday should cap off rain chances by mid-morning, and a period of
warm and dry weather is expected for the latter part of the week and
into the weekend. Highs across much of the forecast area each
afternoon Thursday through Saturday will likely reach or exceed 90
degrees. This will be the first time in approximately 3 weeks many
areas have seen 90-degree temperatures, which is a rare occurrence
for August and September.
Eventually, this ridge will begin to break down as a potent, deep-
layer trough across the western CONUS is forecast to just make it to
the central plains bringing temperatures back to near normal for
time of year and a few opportunities at rain chances. Details are
still a bit fuzzy, but it appears as through the incoming mid/upper
trough will be enough of a catalyst for widespread showers and
storms to develop across the High Plains Saturday afternoon and
evening. Then, as these storms move eastward, activity is likely to
weaken, and much of the CWA (mainly west of the Flint Hills) will
like experience the remnant showers Sunday morning. However, some of
the global models indication conditions would be supportive for some
additional storm develop Sunday afternoon and evening, although
chances for this remain below 25% at this time. Afterwards, drier
and seasonably warm conditions are expected going into next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Scattered showers will exit the CNU area by 02Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will become
light and variable by 02Z before increase from the southeast at
10-15 kt by mid to late morning. A stray shower or storm cannot
be entirely ruled out across central KS towards dawn Thursday
but confidence remains too low for inclusion at this time.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion