Everson, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

266
FXUS61 KPBZ 071142
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
742 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of dry weather is expected. Temperatures
around 10 degrees below normal today will see a gradual warming
trend over the upcoming work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Drier weather today, save for a few showers north of I-80
- Temperatures will continue to be 10 degrees below normal
---------------------------------------------------------------
Dry weather (outside of a few stray and very light possible
showers/sprinkles north of I-80) is expected today as surface
high pressure moves in across the region. The mentioned
precipitation will be possible due to h850 temps of 3-4C
advecting over Lake Erie water temps near 22C. Temperatures will
be fairly similar to observed Saturday, as increased sunshine
is offset by cooler 850mb temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued dry conditions and the beginning of a warming trend
- Patchy valley fog possible
--------------------------------------------------------------
Height rises overnight and into next week are forecast as the
eastern CONUS trough axis weakens in amplitude and moves off to
the east, replaced by more zonal flow. Limited cloud coverage
overnight will allow for efficient radiative cooling to take
lows to between 10 and 15 degrees below average with patchy
valley fog. Monday, mixing will allow warmer (but still below
average) afternoon temperatures Monday with only patchy
afternoon cumulus and continued dry conditions.
Monday night into Tuesday will bring much of the same with cool
lows and valley fog, followed by another slight increase to
daytime highs, but still slightly below average. High clouds
may increase through Tuesday as upper moisture blows off from a
coastal southeast low.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Slight warming trend and dry conditions continue
------------------------------------------------------------------
There appears to be a continued consensus that upper shortwave
troughing drops over the area through the Wednesday to Friday
period, slowing the warming trend and keeping temperatures near
average. Despite the upper veering flow, near-surface high
pressure and subsidence is forecast to prevail, keeping
temperatures near climatological normal and much of the area
dry.
Uncertainty increases towards the end of the week and through
the weekend with the overall synoptic pattern, but all in all,
dry conditions look likely to persist through the period.
10th and 90th percentile ensemble max temperatures continue to
show about a 20 degree spread, but have kept the forecast at the
mean which is right around normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog and low stratus, generally along and south of a DUJ/PIT/ZZV
line, will lift by 14Z, as the 12Z PBZ sounding shows a very
shallow moist layer.
Once this occurs, VFR is forecast for the balance of the day,
with diurnal cumulus between 3-6kft. Ongoing cold advection over
the warm waters of Lake Erie should generate a few scattered
lake-enhanced showers this afternoon, with FKL and DUJ most
likely to see this precipitation. Steepening low-level lapse
rates will aid efficient mixing, allowing for some 15-25 knots
wind gusts this afternoon.
Any cumulus/showers will collapse with sunset, leading to a VFR
evening. With high pressure overhead, a mostly clear and calm
overnight is foreseen. Fog should be more valley-based Monday
morning, mainly as steam over the warm rivers.
.OUTLOOK....
High confidence in high pressure supporting VFR and light wind
as the predominate weather type through at least mid week.
Variances in these conditions will only be the result of
localized morning river valley fog.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...CL

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion