Fair Play, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

754
FXUS64 KSHV 231858
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
158 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Expanded PoPs over deep E TX and much of LA for this afternoon.
Also, we just got MD #2123 by SPC over parts of SE OK/SW AR.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Ready to part with summer heat finally as Strong to Severe
   thunderstorms are still on track for this evening, overnight
   and into much of Wednesday. Wetting rains will cool our soil.
- Some of this rainfall maybe heavy at times as clusters of
   thunderstorms slowly work across parts of NE TX overnight.
- Fall arrives temperature-wise in the wake of our cold front
   with northerly winds into early next week that will cool us
   down and drive out the humidity once again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Another warm to hot summer-like afternoon is unfolding for us
with air temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. S/SW winds are
gusting in a few locales with some gustier rain-cooled outflow
winds spreading over our southern tier of Parishes. The KSHV 88D
is tracking numerous showers and some thunderstorms over Toledo
Bend Country up into NE LA. So we have added some PoPs for these
areas and updated all zones. Also, we are seeing some convection
blowing up over E OK that could bring a Headline update to some
of our NW zones soon.
Some of this forecast update includes "Locally heavy rainfall"
wording for overnight across several of our NE TX counties. The
HRRR is on board with a prefrontal push around midnight and more
to come ahead of the surface and elevated fronts into the mid
morning perhaps. Movement of the elements will be fairly
progressive, but the recurrent development on the boundaries may
up the totals with some 2 to 4 inches in currently our WPC QPF
storm total grid from 00Z-12Z. There is a potential for even
higher amounts in very localized area that could fall in the 5 to
8 inch range, but coverage of this is not expected to widespread
enough to warrant a flood watch at this time.
The Drought Monitor has no deficits over NE TX with antecedent
soil moisture still lingering. No doubt we will see a Flood
Warning or few overnight across I-30 and eventually down across
I-20 by daybreak through noon on Wednesday. So once again, it will
be a good idea to keep your NOAA WX radio at bedside for the
coming overnight period for wind and water. Much of the area will
see 1 to 2 inches of needed rainfall and our worst D0/D1 resides
over the Natural State, certainly welcomed there. And really that`s
the side benefit of good soaking rains, as it will sink in and
cool the warmer top soil and clay beneath.
The cold front will be arriving throughout the day tomorrow as NW
winds shift into our I-30 corridor by daybreak and down to I-20
by noon, while our SE LA Parishes may have to wait until sunset
for that wind shift. This is a solid air mass in depth and not
too shallow, so the H850 moisture will be shifting out closely
behind the surface front with rains tapering after several hours
of surface winds from the NW. The surface low will be over the
plains into the mid MS River Valley during Wednesday with the H500
low at 576dam on GFS for the lowest, which shifts from KN into
MO/IL by sunset, thus keeping pulses in the zonal flow with
perturbations locked in over the front for portions of our area.
The 1020mb surface high will sit back and wait behind as the
deepening trough overhead as the KN upper low phases under the
deeper parent upper low over the Great Lakes. This will slowly
deepen the long wave while hanging onto the positive tilt through
the process. A secondary low will form over the MS River near the
boot heal of MO and drop SE toward MS and eventually GA by
Saturday afternoon. Aloft, we get to hang on to a slowly building
upper ridge over the high plains this weekend, keeping our heights
aloft a little lower and our temperatures too, right along with
as the prevailing NE surface winds linger into early next week.
High temperatures will slip back to below average 80s and lows
will be very nice again in the upper 50s and lower 60s for this
weekend, and slowly warming by next week under the broad upper
ridge eventually moving eastward. Our next chance for rainfall
may set up underneath by mid to late next week if you like the
GFS with a weak broad upper low 581 dam over Toledo Bend Country.
Upper High over Low is always "slow to go" in the pattern. A weak
588dam bubble forms over IL/IN on both GFS and ECMWF, while the
euro likes a shallow trough overhead for us instead of the GFS`s
closed low. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A spread of BKN CU across the airspace this afternoon, hovering at
or above 3kft. KSHV radar is quickly picking up on scattered SHRA
embedded within the CU. Elected to prevail vicinity SHRA at most
LA terminals, with the addition of LFK given the axis of the SHRA
development over the last hour. By the late afternoon, and into
the evening, much of this should dissipate with a clearing of the
low level CU through sunset. That being said, convective
development north of the airspace will support high level cirrus
spreading south overnight, with low CU below 5kft returning as a
frontal boundary sags southward. With this in play, SHRA/TSRA
will impact the local terminals after midnight, with continued
impacts through sunrise and into the early afternoon of the
period. Aviation related hazards should continue for terminals
south of I-30 through the 18z termination period of this TAF
period. Though southerly terminal winds are expected through the
majority of the period in advance of the boundary, gusty VRB winds
under convective influence is expected.
KNAPP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Spotter activation is likely to become necessary by later this
afternoon, into this evening and through the overnight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  85  68  85 /  30  80  30  10
MLU  75  88  68  86 /  10  80  60  20
DEQ  69  81  61  81 /  80  50  10  10
TXK  73  82  64  83 /  60  70  10  10
ELD  71  81  62  83 /  30  80  20  20
TYR  74  80  64  82 /  60  80  20   0
GGG  73  82  64  83 /  40  80  20   0
LFK  74  90  67  86 /  10  80  50  10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion