Falcon, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

317
FXUS64 KBRO 222342 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
642 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The main focus for the forecast continues to be the unsettled
weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While PWAT
values continue to remain around 2 inches indicating that the
environment remains moist and favorable for the development of
showers and thunderstorms. While the rain chances are generally in
the range low to medium (20 to 50%), the chances for rain during the
day on Thursday are still very uncertain at this point. While the
models have very high chances for rain, those chances are very
dependent on what happens with a frontal boundary that could come
through the region, stall out over the area, or even remain to the
north as well. Because there continues to remain so much uncertainty
with this part of the forecast, PoPs have been lowered. At this
point, medium (40-70%) chances for rain are expected for Thursday,
however this is likely to change depending on what occurs with the
front. Will need to continue to monitor the model trends to see how
this frontal boundary evolves.
As for the temperatures for the forecast period. Highs are typically
in the 90s for the region with a few places in Western Starr and
Zapata reaching into the triple digits. The area is generally in a
moderate (level 2 of 4) for Heat Risk, however tomorrow and
Wednesday parts of the region do go into major (level 3 of 4) for
Heat Risk. While the heat indices do remain below the criteria for
Heat Advisory, an SPS for elevated heat indices could be issued for
parts of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A few passing clouds and light southeast winds prevail across Deep
South Texas early this evening. There is a low chance of some
MVFR ceilings late tonight as low level clouds increase. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop on Tuesday,
mainly along the seabreeze. However, will not mention convection at
this time due to low confidence of activity impacting the
aerodromes. Mainly light southeast winds will persist through the
period, some gusts around 20 knots will be possible late Tuesday
morning into the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Marine conditons are generally expected to be favorable with mostly
light to moderate southeasterly winds and low seas around 2 to 3
feet. While showers and thunderstorms chances are expected to be
generally low to moderate (20 to 50%) for the forecast period. There
is a greater chance for more showers and thunderstorms on Thursday
depending on what occurs with a frontal boundary that could move
through the Lower Texas coast on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  93  80  94 /  10  30  10  40
HARLINGEN               76  96  76  96 /   0  20   0  40
MCALLEN                 79  99  80  99 /  10  10   0  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         76 100  77 101 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  89  83  89 /  20  20  20  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  79  92 /  10  20  10  40
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...63-KC

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion