Falfurrias, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

783
FXUS64 KBRO 031747
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Increased Rip Current risk this weekend.
- Daily chance for isolated showers along the sea breeze.
- Increased rain chances later half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
This Weekend Broad mid-level high pressure over the Ohio River
Valley and mid-level low pressure over the Central Gulf will look
to largely remain in place through the weekend, supporting low-
level easterly flow across the Gulf. This long fetch length will
lead to increased surf height and stronger rip currents this
weekend. Additionally, this low level easterly flow will continue
to advect additional moisture to the region, presenting the
opportunity for daily isolated to scattered showers along the
afternoon sea breeze. The best rain chances look to be confined to
areas along and east of I-69C/US281. Dry air aloft will likely
inhibit deep convection, limiting the potential for thunderstorms
to develop.
Monday through next Friday The low pressure system over the Gulf
dissipates early next week as the aforementioned high pressure
system moves off the eastern seaboard. This will support primarily
southerly to southeasterly winds across the Gulf, allowing surf
heights and rip currents to subside. By midweek, an upper-level
ridge looks to build over the Southern Plains, with the mid level
high displaced slightly to the east. This will once again support
generally easterly low-level flow across the Northern Gulf, which
could increase surf height and rip current strength by the end of
the period. Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers along
the sea breeze will continue early next week.
At the same time, a weak surface low looks to develop over the
South-Central Gulf, and progress westward. Depending on how far
north this system tracks, it could increase rain chances across
the CWA in the later half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Predominately VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period. Cloud cover is expected to increase this afternoon as the
sea breeze moves inland. Isolated to scattered showers could
develop this afternoon, though probabilities of any of these
showers impacting a TAF site are too low to warrant inclusion in
the TAFs. Skies are expected to become mostly clear overnight and
into Saturday morning. Light to moderate northeasterly winds this
afternoon are expected to become light and variable overnight.
Another round of isolated to scattered showers will be possible
along the coast Saturday morning, which could briefly drop
visibilities and ceilings to MVFR at BRO and HRL.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
High pressure over the eastern US and a weak low over the Central
Gulf will likely support moderate easterly flow across the
Northern Gulf. The long fetch length will likely support moderate
seas and increased swell periods through the weekend. This pattern
looks to break down early next week, allowing generally slight
seas to return through mid week as winds across the gulf shift
more southerly. The easterly fetch will likely return by mid week
as high pressure develop over the Southeast, once again building
moderate seas by the end of the period.
Light to moderate onshore winds look to persist through the period
along the Lower Texas Coast. The latest forecast guidance keeps
seas just below criteria for Small Craft Should Exercise Cation
headlines this weekend and late next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  89  75  92 /  20  30  10  20
HARLINGEN               71  91  70  92 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN                 73  94  74  97 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  95  70  97 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  79  86 /  20  30  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  87  73  89 /  20  30  20  20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion