Falls Mill, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

687
FXUS61 KRLX 010700
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north, leading to a prolonged
period of dry and unseasonably warm weather. The next chance for
precipitation arrives early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...
The last of the mid and high-level cloudiness associated with the
remnants of Imelda will continue to exit the area this morning,
allowing for strong radiational cooling under clearing skies and
light winds. Satellite imagery already indicates fog developing
in the deeper river valleys, and this trend is expected to
continue, likely becoming dense in areas subject to cold air
drainage. Fog should be most persistent in the southern
coalfields and the Metro Valley, while a weak northerly flow
across southeast Ohio and adjacent portions of West Virginia may
help to limit its coverage there. Visibilities will improve by
mid-morning as surface heating allows for mixing.
Otherwise, tranquil weather is anticipated today. An expansive
surface high pressure system centered over eastern Canada will
nose southward, ensuring dry conditions and mostly sunny skies.
Afternoon high temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80s
for most lowland locations, with 70s in the higher terrain. This
is several degrees above normal for early October. With clear
skies and light winds persisting tonight, another round of
valley fog is expected, along with the potential for patchy
frost in deeper, well protected mountains valleys - although
coverage appears too limited to warrant any highlights at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...
A large area of high pressure will remain firmly in control of the
weather across the eastern United States through the period. This
will maintain a dry north to northeasterly flow, suppressing any
precipitation chances. Skies will be mostly clear, although some
increase in high cloudiness is possible late Saturday as flow aloft
becomes more southwesterly.
Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm, with afternoon highs
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s, which is 5 to 10 degrees
above average. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s. The
combination of clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass will
continue to support efficient radiational cooling each night. This
will lead to the potential for locally dense valley fog each morning
with perhaps some additional patchy frost in favored mountain
cold air drainage locations Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...
The extended forecast period will start with a continuation of the
dry and warm spell as the center of the surface high drifts slowly
eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will remain well
above normal for early October through Monday.
Confidence is increasing in a pattern change for Tuesday. An upper-
level trough is forecast to dig into the Great Lakes, driving a weak
and moisture-starved cold front toward the Appalachians. This will
introduce the first chance of showers to the region since last
week, although precipitation amounts look rather meager at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...
Valley fog is expected to affect most terminals this morning
with possible exceptions of PKB and HTS. Fog dissipates through
13-14Z. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and light northerly winds
through the remainder of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog and very low
stratus may vary this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              WED 10/01/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through Sunday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion