Ferrum, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

160
FXUS61 KRNK 250555
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
155 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad area of low pressure over the central United States will
move slowly east with time, resulting in a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...
Areas of showers still moving through the area with occasional
lightning. Stronger convection has weakened with loss of heating
and any lingering convection should diminish within the next
hour or two. Coverage of rain showers should gradually decrease
as well, but could start to see an increase in coverage again
right around sunrise. Low clouds and fog seem likely overnight
with added moisture from recent rainfall today.
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...
As per previous thoughts, the edge of the morning cloud shield
along and north of the I-81 corridor has focused convective
initiation due to increased baroclinity from the differential
heating/solar sheltering. CAMs were in good consensus with a
somewhat linear cluster of development triggering generally
along the foothills and then propagating eastward into the
Piedmont where there has been greater destabilization. With
high PWATs in place and possible training of such cells this
afternoon, will need to focus on isolated heavy rainfall and
hydrometeor loading aiding downdrafts to generate gusty winds.
Thursday looks to provide additional rounds of shower activity
and afternoon storm potential under the persistent SW flow aloft
along the eastern upper trough. Guidance is indicating a bit
stronger bulk shear close to 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer along
with a potential to get close to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. The
question will be if such instability can be attained given
possible lingering cloud coverage. SPC does have the eastern
majority of the CWA in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe storms
with damaging wind as the main threat.
Min temps should be well above normal in the 60s for most areas
tonight given the ample moisture and cloud cover, then generally
increase to the 70s for the mountains and low to mid 80s for the
Piedmont Thursday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) A cold front will move through the area Thursday night into
Friday.
2) Shower/storm chances continue through the weekend.
3) Temperatures fall behind the front to near to just below average
on Saturday.
A cold front will be moving into the area Thursday night, with
showers and storms expected to linger into the night as the front
pushes through. Some isolated severe weather will still be possible
early on before diurnal heating fades, especially for the eastern
Piedmont in the form of damaging wind gusts. As the front pushes
through by Friday morning, it stalls just to our east. An upper-
level trough will continue to drive moisture northward into the
area, and with the frontal boundary still around, will continue to
keep showers/storms in the forecast for both Friday and Saturday.
Rain chances have increased since yesterday, with scattered chances
on Friday, mostly south of US-460, with deeper moisture expected for
Saturday with widespread showers/storms throughout the day and
through the end of the period, again with higher coverage to the
south in NC. The upper trough will begin to close off and become a
cutoff low that will sit over the Deep South through the weekend as
the main jet stream to the north lifts back into Canada. The
southeasterly flow aloft around the cutoff low will help to keep
widespread cloud cover over the entire forecast area.
Rain totals have also increased for the period, with around an inch
expected for the mountains. Locations along/east of the Blue Ridge
will see higher moisture, and in turn, higher rainfall totals closer
to the stalled front. Around 1-2" can be expected, with locally
higher amounts likely in the heaviest convection. A marginal risk
for excessive rainfall is across the NC mountains each day, and for
east of the Blue Ridge on Saturday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with 70s for the
mountains and low to mid 80s for the Piedmont as the front clears
through. On Saturday, temperatures drop due to heavy cloud cover,
with highs in the 60s/70s. The increased cloud cover will also keep
overnight lows mild, in the 60s until 50s return for the mountains
Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Rain chances continue each day through the period.
2) Near normal temperatures through midweek.
3) Uncertainty with potential tropical systems and their impacts.
Beginning Sunday, the upper low that remains cutoff over the Deep
South will continue to drive moisture up into our area, but drier
air will also begin to wrap around the low. This will help to limit
the coverage of afternoon showers/storms, but rain remains in the
forecast each day through the period, though PoPs lower from around
50% down to 30% by midweek. The stalled surface frontal boundary
drifts east and stays along the coast.
There is great uncertainty in the forecast for early next week, as
it is looking increasingly likely that not one, but two tropical
systems will form in the Western Atlantic over the weekend. These
systems will be side-by-side and heading northeast towards the US
initially. The eastern system will not impact the CONUS, as it is
expected to turn north and then out to sea. There is less confidence
in the western system and where it will go due to a complex synoptic
setup. The cutoff upper low over the Southeastern US could grab the
system and pull it towards the Eastern US. If this occurs, then
tropical impacts for our area would become more likely. However,
models currently are leaning towards the eastern tropical system
becoming stronger, which will draw in the weaker western system and
pull it away from land with little to no direct impacts for our
area. This could change as more data is gathered about steering
currents and the potential systems as they develop. Regardless of
the track, tropical moisture from the Atlantic will be advected into
the area early next week, enhanced by flow around the upper low over
the US. While currently PoPs are kept low, this could change once
details become known.
Temperatures remain on the cool side, though stay near normal. Highs
each day will be in the 70s through midweek, when 60s return west of
the Blue Ridge. Lows will be in the 50s/60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday...
Unsettled weather through the 24 hour valid TAF with highly
variable cigs/vsbys due to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Upper trough is centered just west of the
Appalachians and will contribute to poor flight conditions today
across the forecast area. Expect areas of MVFR with LCL IFR and
potentially LIFR due to vsby restrictions from showers/storms.
Near saturated airmass will also contribute to low cigs with
potential for ridge obscurations where cloud base intersects
terrain. Some improvement in cloud base may occur this afternoon
per daytime heating, but not confident on overall flight
category at any given time this afternoon due to the extensive
coverage of showers and potential for sudden drop in cig/vsby
when they occur.
Winds today are expected to be light from the south this
morning then increase from the southwest this afternoon...and
gusty (to near 20 kts) over the piedmont. Outflow winds
associated with thunderstorms may gust up to 30 kts. Winds are
forecast to diminish after sunset.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
remainder of this work week as a broad upper level trough of low
pressure and associated surface cold front slowly tracks
eastward and across the Appalachian Mountains. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible in the heavier showers, and some
patchy fog may occur during the overnight hours in response to
the increasing moisture. By Saturday, the cold front should
reach the East Coast but high uncertainty as to whether drier
air brings more widespread VFR conditions. Some models are now
trending wetter with low pressure stalling over the area and
bringing unsettled weather for the weekend in addition to
tropical concerns increasing near the coast.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AB/BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion