Fillmore, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

925
FXUS63 KFGF 251442
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
942 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- No weather hazards into early next week. Continued above
  normal temperatures most days.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Winds continue to shift to northerly across the central parts of
our CWA as the front continues to propagate southward. Skies
will remain clear for the day with no weather impacts occurring
other than 25-30mph wind gusts.
UPDATE
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Cold front on the move southeast having passed Hallock and just
recently Grafton and Devils Lake. Wind gust 20 mph at Cavalier
AWOS which is anticipated to spread south behind the front and
peak 25-30 mph mid morning thru midday in the north valley.
Skies clear with the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...Synopsis...
No fog around at 08z for a change. Enough of a boundary layer
southwest wind 5 to 12 kts keeping the temperature a bit higher
and above the dew point. Cold front will make it way southeast
thru the area today....this morning in NE ND and far NW MN and
this aftn farther south. Cooler airmass behind this front, with
strongest cold advection in Manitoba and into northeast ND with
a drop of about 7-9C in 925 mb temperatures comparing this aftn
to yesterday aftn. So agree with latest NBM and HRRR guidance in
keeping northeast ND and parts of NW MN in the mid-upr 60s
today. Warmer south with highs near 80 possible along SD border
before front arrives. It is a dry front with no clouds. Look for
a 3-6 hour period of gusty north-northwest winds behind the
front, most noticeable where the cold advection is strongest in
northeast ND and northwest Minnesota. Wind gusts 25 kts or so
expected northern RRV where favored wind direction will exist
and full mixing from 925-850 mb occurs peaking 15-21z.
High pressure settles in and significantly cooler tonight with
lows in the 40s, near 40 in some places closer to the Intl
border and NW MN cooler spots.
Quick warm up though on Friday as south winds increase to 15-25
mph in the aftn out ahead of another cold front. Winds with this
feature a tad stronger ahead and behind as surface low
strengthens in northern Manitoba. Front is fast moving and thus
any period of stronger wind gusts 30+ mph will be short lived
(3 hours or so). A bit more moisture with it with moddel
consensus bringing a few showers Friday evening with front into
far NW MN, Lake of the Woods area. Front timing puts front into
the RRV 23z-01z period. Warm advection ahead of front will boost
temps likely a tad higher than NBM guidance with mid 70s to low
80s in most areas.
Slightly cooler Saturday though cooler air with this system but
then warming back up quickly Sunday into Tuesday next week with
low 80s in many areas as 500 mb ridge builds into Minnesota.
This does put the area on the east edge of a southwest flow
aloft pattern which as we get toward mid next week may give
precip chances.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Skies clear thru 12z Friday. No fog this morning for a change.
Cold front dropping southeast to change wind direction this
morning to NW....likely near GFK 13z then midday Fargo area.
Brief north wind gusts then winds near calm later tonight.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Perroux/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion