First View, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

335
FXUS63 KGLD 091830
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1230 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.
  Storms are forecast to fire up this afternoon and again in the
  evening, mainly favoring those counties along the Colorado
  border.
- Severe storms may fire by the early afternoon, with the risk
  for large to very large hail and gusty winds. This threat will
  last through most of the night.
- Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s and 90s through
  much of the week ahead. Daily storm chances are forecast, with
  the possibility for severe storms as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Today temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 80s to low
90s, very similar to yesterday. There is some lingering fog and
stratus over the northeastern CWA, which could lower their highs to
the low to mid 80s.
In the afternoon, a low coming out of southern Colorado will trek
across the CWA and spark off the first round of showers and storms.
We could see the first storms fire any time between 19-23Z. Hail
looks to be the biggest threat, potentially 2-3+ inch hail, if a
storm can remain free of competing updrafts. Wind is also a bit of a
concern as DCAPE climbs to over 1,000 J/kg and 6-9km winds are
around 50 kts, so a gust or two of 55-65 MPH are possible. This
severe threat looks to only last 3-5 hours and move in from the
southwest and move east. This is looking to be fairly limited in
coverage.
Later in the evening, likely between 0-6Z, a stout 500 mb shortwave
is expected to start forcing more storms to fire to the west-
northwest of the CWA. This overnight severe threat could last until
around 12Z, but will start on the weakening trend around 9Z, and
storms will exit to the east. Main threats will depend on the storm
mode and likelihood of severe weather will depend on how depleted
the environment is after the first round of storms. If this round
becomes more of a linear/QLCS threat, wind will be a main threat. If
these storms are more discrete supercells, hail and a brief tornado
would be the main threats. There is a 20-30% chance there is too
much dry air in the low/mid-levels and no convection will be able to
fire. Overnight temperatures will once again dip into the mid 50s to
low 60s.
Tomorrow morning, behind the convection, we are expecting to see
some stratus and potentially some fog in the northeastern CWA. This
should clear out by 15Z and temperatures look to warm into the mid
80s. We are looking at the bulk of the 500 mb ridge axis moving over
the CWA, which will keep PoPs under 10. Southeasterly winds are
forecast to start gusting to around 20-25 kts. Overnight
temperatures look to cool into the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A 500 mb high slowly shifting its axis to the east over the central
Great Plains with a slow moving 500 mb low over the Northern Rockies
will dominate the first part of the long-term. In the lower-levels
an 850 mb level, a high pressure system over the mid and southern
Mississippi River Valley regions as weak lows eject off the Northern
Rockies. This will allow a southerly LLJ to funnel mid and low-level
moisture into the CWA as well as warmer temperatures. Due to the
heat, moisture, and weak cold fronts, there will be a 20-30% chance
of showers and weak storms across the area on Thursday. Friday or
Saturday, the upper-level low looks to push into the Great Plains
and send stronger cold fronts into the area. The timing (Friday vs
Saturday) for the strong cold front is still question, but increases
PoPs to about 40-50% on Friday and Saturday. With the LLJ having
been pushing warm, moist air into the area for the previous few
days, the potential for severe weather is gradually increasing, to
around 10-15%.
Sunday, the low looks to move off to the northeast and a mild ridge
will build back in, extending up from the southeast. However, about
24 hours after that ridge moves in, we will see another low moving
in over the west coast and overrun the ridge, leading to more
unsettled weather to start off next week.
Ahead of the cold front this weekend, temperatures look to warm into
the upper 80s to low 90s. Behind the cold front, we expect to see
low to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures ahead of the cold front are
forecast to cool into the 60s, potentially near 70 for the eastern
CWA. Post front, low 50s to low 60s are forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Now that the fog and stratus has clear from KMCK, VFR conditions
will generally prevail through most of the period, but we are
expecting scattered to widespread storms to move across the
region this evening and overnight. Timing in the TAFs are the
best timing forecast we can give due to how messy this event
looks, but keep an eye on radar and other observations as timing
is subject to change.
Following the storms tomorrow morning, there is a 50-70% chance
of some MVFR to briefly IFR ceilings at KGLD, and visibilities
and ceilings at KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion