Five Forks, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

711
FXUS61 KRLX 192337
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
737 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mostly dry weather prevails into the weekend under
high pressure. Chances of rain and storms return next week, with
more widespread activity expected from mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 736 PM Friday...
Previous forecast remains on track.
As of 1245 PM Friday...
High pressure and an upper level ridge will sustain dry
conditions across the area throughout the day, with relative
humidity values lowering into the 25 to 35 percent range across
most of the area this afternoon and evening. In spite of dry
conditions, light winds will help to limit fire weather
concerns.
Patchy fog is possible for some of the river valleys again late
tonight into early Saturday morning, though extent may be
curtailed by dry air and a gradual increase in cloud cover from
the west.
On Saturday, a frontal boundary hovers to the north while a low
pressure system ambles towards the Great Lakes along the
US/Canada border. Within the forecast area, the presence of dry
low-level air should keep the majority of the area
precipitation free; however, there is a low probability of a few
diurnally driven showers in the vicinity of the mountains
Saturday afternoon and evening. Any activity would then taper
off with the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...
Upper ridging recedes from the area while a weak shortwave
passes to the west on Sunday. Although this disturbance could
prompt an isolated shower or storm mainly to the west of the
Ohio River, residual dry low-level air is expected to suppress
precipitation potential. A gradual increase in moisture ahead of
another shortwave then allows more widespread precipitation
chances to develop on Monday, primarily in the afternoon and
evening hours.
Temperatures remain above normal through early next week, with
daily highs reaching 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to low 80s
in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...
Moisture continues to increase as a system passes to the north and
pulls a front down towards the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Precipitation chances are expected to overspread the area in
advance of the front, then shower and thunderstorm activity
remains possible throughout the area as another system tracks
out of the central US and into the Ohio Valley Region mid to
late week.
Temperatures moderate into mid week, with near to slightly above
normal highs expected each day through the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 736 PM Friday...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue this evening and most part
of tonight across our CWA. The exception could be dense patchy steam
fog along the southern river valleys during the overnight hours.
Tygart river including EKN terminal will likely experience dense fog
roughly from 06Z to 12Z Saturday morning. A suppressing factor could
be some mid level clouds evident on satellite imagery across extreme
northern WV, which could suppress fog formation at EKN tonight.
Winds will become calm this evening. Winds will be light and
variable, with a southerly component on Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog. Otherwise, high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Mid level clouds may interrupt dense fog
formation across the northeast overnight tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Compared to historical records and the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate
Normals, it was a very warm summer across the NWS Charleston
forecast area. The summer season encapsulates the period of June
1st through August 31st. Mean temperatures for the 2025 summer
season were generally 1 to 3 degrees above normal. This translated
into four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the
top 10 in terms of their warmest mean summer temperatures on record.
As is typical during the summer season, precipitation totals
varied rather significantly across the forecast area depending
on location, ranging from as low as 7 to 9 inches in portions of
southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky, to as high as 16 to nearly
20 inches across some locations in the lowlands of West Virginia
and northeast mountains. This resulted in a wide range of
precipitation departures depending on location, with some areas
ending up well below normal in terms of total precipitation,
while others well above normal, with the overall spread of
departures ranging from approximately +/- 5 inches. Even with
this wide range of precipitation totals across the forecast area,
no top 10s were set at any of the official NWS Charleston climate
locations in terms of wettest or driest summer on record.
Summer 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Location             Top 10 Rank                Observed Value
- Elkins, WV         : 2nd Warmest             -> 72.1 F
- Huntington, WV     : 4th Warmest             -> 77.9 F
- Clarksburg, WV     : Tied 4th Warmest        -> 74.5 F
- Beckley, WV        : 6th Warmest             -> 71.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------------
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...ARJ/20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ
CLIMATE...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion