Flemington, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

842
FXUS62 KCHS 211759
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
159 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the region will weaken on Monday. A
storm system could affect the area late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid-levels will consist of a weak trough axis moving from
the Plains States to the MS River Valley, causing heights
over our area to gradually drop, while southwest flow prevails. At
the surface, High pressure will prevail over New England, with
it`s periphery reaching far into the Southeast U.S. Offshore,
troughing will prevail. Our land areas should mostly be under
the influence of the High, leading to dry conditions. However,
the deterministic models hint at some showers over the coastal
waters approaching our coastal counties overnight. Hence, the
NBM has slight chance POPs in some of these locations,
especially late tonight. Little, if any QPF is expected. Low and
high-level clouds are expected to increase overnight, somewhat
limiting temperatures drops despite northeast surface winds.
Lows should range from the mid 60s far inland to the lower 70s
near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure to the north will weaken as high pressure
rebuilds over the western Atlantic. 0-6 km mean flow will become
southerly by Monday with moisture advecting into the region. A
weak coastal trough is expected to form along the coast Monday
and linger into Tuesday. Scattered mainly diurnal showers/tstms
possible Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday, potentially
enhanced by the sea breeze. Deep layered ridging on Wednesday
will result in dry weather and warmer temps with highs
potentially climbing as high as the mid 90s far inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The ridge will persist into Thursday before giving way to an
approaching upper trough. A cold front could slide through the
area on Friday, bringing a greater chance for showers an tstms.
Somewhat cooler temperatures will then prevail next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z TAFs. Mainly VFR through the first half of the night. Some
MOS guidance and ensembles hint at low stratus floating in from
the north tonight, possibly causing flight restrictions for a
few hours before daybreak Monday. We hinted at this in these
TAFs. Later TAFs may introduce flight restrictions if confidence
increases.
Extended Aviation Forecast: Mainly VFR expected. Increasing rain
chances on Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight: The coastal waters will be sandwiched between High
pressure well inland and a surface trough well offshore. This
synoptic pattern will generate NE winds. Speeds should be
sustained 15-20 kt, with gusts into the lower 20s. Seas
will average 3-5 ft. Conditions should remain just below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.
The enhanced NE gradient will persist Monday before diminishing
Monday night and Tuesday as the high to the north weakens.
Overall, conditions should remain just below Small Craft
Advisory levels during this time.
Tuesday through Friday, no concerns.
Rip Currents: Persistent NE winds and lingering moderate swell
will maintain a Moderate risk for rip currents through Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for minor coastal flooding should continue early this
week. Coastal Flood Advisories could eventually be needed for
minor saltwater flooding in Charleston and Coastal Colleton
Counties.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion