Floodwood, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

084
FXUS63 KDLH 141956
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
256 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog is expected again tonight, especially around the Twin
Ports and North Shore.
- Scattered shower and storm chances on Monday and on-and-off
shower/storm chances the rest of the week into next weekend.
- Warm temperatures through Wednesday, then becoming gradually
  cooler.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
This afternoon:
After some persistent stratus and areas of dense fog this
morning, there has been some clearing this afternoon. Persistent
stratus across east-central Minnesota and into northwest
Wisconsin is getting attacked from all sides with diurnal
heating and mixing, but it`s very stubborn and it may persist in
some form through the afternoon, though it should continue to
generally mix out. Fog still persists around the head of the
lake, and it probably will remain there this afternoon. Otherwise,
southerly warm air advection aloft continues and thus we`re
seeing some toasty temperatures in the 80s away from Lake
Superior.
Tonight:
Very summer-like weather out there. Perhaps the defining feature
of that is keeping temperatures cooler by the lake even at night
with lows in the 50s there and 60s for many places inland, which
is ~15-20 degrees above normal. Synoptic southeast winds
continue with east to northeast winds around Lake Superior, and
dense fog should redevelop again tonight (~60-70% chance) in
the usual places in the higher terrain around the Twin Ports and
up the North Shore. Some localized fog may be possible inland
as well, though dense fog isn`t likely (10-20% chance). We`ll
also have a short wave starting to make its way north across
west- central Minnesota. Most models keep any showers and storms
to the southwest, but they might start creeping into the
Brainerd Lakes by early morning.
Monday:
There may be a roughly north-south oriented "stripe" of showers
and storms that may develop ahead of a warm front and pass
through from south to north, mainly through northeast Minnesota,
during the morning and early afternoon as a trough passes by to
the west. Warm air advection should give enough of a boost for
some modest elevated CAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg to be at least
somewhat realized for convection. Not expecting anything severe.
Other than the showers and storms, it should be another warm
day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and some sunshine at
times.
Monday night into Tuesday:
The upper level low that will be responsible for Monday`s
scattered showers/storms will move north into Canada and become
vertically stacked on Tuesday. We`ll be left with continuing
warm air and moisture advection (PWATs just over an inch). We`ll
have to keep a close eye on Tuesday afternoon as it`s looking
like there could be a lot of instability in place (MUCAPE could
exceed 2 kJ/kg). But, it could also be capped, and without a
significant synoptic lifting mechanism, we could end up without
much for rain or storms. But if there is any little change that
could spark storms, the ingredients are there for a few strong
to severe storms.
Tuesday night through next weekend:
A couple upper-level lows might do a quick Fujiwhara dance over
Manitoba before one makes its way south into the Dakotas
towards the end of the week. We may get a weak cold front
passing through sometime around Tuesday night, which could bring
an end to the southerly flow pattern in favor of more easterly
winds as high pressure may set up well to our north. But with
that said, we`re not looking at any real deep cool air making
its way into our region, though it should get progressively and
noticeably cooler towards the end of the week. That upper low
moving into the Dakotas could tag-team with another low from the
south and essentially keep us in a pattern favorable for some
scattered shower/storm chances (probably nothing strong to
severe). It`s looking like we may be under the influence of some
upper level activity into the weekend too, so on-and-off rain
chances may persist. Temperatures should get a bit more fall-
like by the weekend as well, with seasonable highs in the 60s
and lows around the upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A persistent area of stratus is affecting BRD/HYR/DLH at this
hour. The stratus is eroding from all sides due to diurnal
heating and mixing, and it should mix out at BRD/HYR in the next
hour, leading to VFR at all terminals through the afternoon
except at DLH. At DLH, onshore flow is keeping the stratus in
place, and while there could be a brief few-hour window of
scattered clouds this afternoon, it`s looking more likely that
the stratus will persist. Around sunset, fog is expected to
redevelop at DLH and it should be dense through Monday morning
with onshore flow. Fog is possible at BRD/HIB/HYR as well, and
it will be more of a diurnal-type fog with quickly-changing
visibilities. It may be dense at times, but probably won`t be at
all times through the night and Monday morning. There will be an
upper-level trough and warm front that could trigger some
scattered showers and storms, and these may affect Minnesota
terminals starting around 12z at BRD and spreading north through
Monday morning. Some brief IFR conditions due to heavy rain and
locally gusty and erratic winds may be possible.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Several headline changes have been made with this update. First,
the Small Craft Advisories are extended to 10 PM as it may take
a while for winds and waves to lighten up. Then, Dense Fog
Advisories have been issued with fog expected to redevelop over
the lake this evening and persist through Monday morning. There
will be a 20-30% chance for some scattered showers and storms
Monday afternoon and early evening. Severe weather is not
expected. Winds will be breezy on Monday with gusts up to 20 kt.
Right now, probabilities are low that they will exceed that.
Winds become briefly southerly on Tuesday, light and variable
Wednesday, then northeasterly and breezy to finish the week.
Hazardous conditions for small craft may be possible late-week.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Monday
     for MNZ020-037.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Monday
     for WIZ001.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for LSZ140>143-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ141>146-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ144>146.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion