Follett, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

991
FXUS64 KAMA 210919
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
419 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Showers and thunderstorms remain over the eastern Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles early this morning. This activity continues to
slowly drift off to the east and should mostly be out of the
Panhandles by or shortly after sunrise. Gusty winds and moderate
to heavy rain are possible in addition to lightning over the next
few hours. The ongoing forecast has been updated based on the
expected progression of the ongoing showers/storms.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Overnight showers and thunderstorms will lead to relatively quite
weather today.
Precipitation chances return Monday with potential to see severe
thunderstorms capable of all hazards.
Thunderstorm chances remain on the lower side next week, but are
possible Tuesday through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Showers are thunderstorms are expected to remain present through
the overnight as new band is currently making its way down form
southeastern Colorado. At this time latest CAMs analysis suggests
that these storms may struggle once they move in, which would
likely leave the Northern Panhandles to deal with more showers
than actual thunderstorms. However just a bit further south,
activity indicates that the expected low-level jet has already
come into play which is currently aiding in keeping some of these
stronger storms going. Still, this activity in the south is
presently being forced out by present outflow boundaries and the
new band moving in. Either way, present CAMs are still in
agreement to a dry pocket of air forcing its way in by Sunday
morning which should help to keep weather relatively quite for the
day.
Monday, on the other hand, is already looking to be a very active
severe weather day with models expecting the initial arrival of
the upper-level trough from our north. This trough will invite a
healthy does of instability to the Panhandles that afternoon and
evening, prompting around a 20 to 40% chances of storms mostly
across the Northern and Eastern Panhandles. On the severe side of
the potential, latest CAMs analysis suggests that decent MLCAPE
will be present with values running around 1500 to 2500 J/kg in
the east, while MUCAPE peaks closer to 3000 J/kg. What is even
more concerning; however, is that these same runs are also
suggesting very decent directional wind shear present with bulk
shears upwards of 40kt. This shear would help keep storms more
organized and discrete for the day, which would prompt potential
for larger hail and damaging winds. This also translates to a few
pockets of good low-level winds shear that make the potential for
a tornado unable to be rule out for the day either. This activity
looks to have the potential to extend into the overnight hours as
the trough continues to dive south into the southern Great Plains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
As model agreement sees the trough continue to dig south as it
exits over the Great Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, present
expectation see chances of precipitation increase. Currently
latest guidance is seeing widespread chances of 25 to 35% present
during this overnight period that will slowly diminish over
Wednesday afternoon as the trough exits. Potential is there to see
a strong to severe thunderstorm, especially early on Tuesday, but
this activity may struggle if the atmosphere is over worked from
previous activity Monday. Moving into Thursday has most models
agreeing to the ridge rebuilding and moving over the Panhandles.
This placement will look to see the Panhandles dry out through
Friday and portions of Saturday. From there model agreement does
see a new closed upper-level low try to move across the
Southwestern United State during the weekend, but there is still a
lot of disagreement on its placement and timing. For now, look
temperatures to cool behind the system with afternoon highs in the
70s Tuesday and Wednesday before warming back into the 80s by the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continue to remain present for this
overnight package with KDHT currently seeing minor impacts. These
showers are expected to transition eastward and impact KGUY before
dissipating just after sunrise. From there all terminals should
slowly clear out for Sunday with VFR conditions present for the
day.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion