Formoso, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

064
FXUS63 KGID 102009
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
309 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures continue to warm through Friday afternoon with
  highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- The next best precipitation chances (40-65%) lie Saturday afternoon
  to Sunday (cold frontal passage). A few stronger to severe
  storms may be possible.
- A touch cooler temperatures Sunday (upper 70s to low 80s) with 80s
  evening out Monday through next Wednesday.
- A 30-35% shower/storm chance returns Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Tonight through Friday...
Temperatures this afternoon are in line to peak into the low to mid
80s with steady southeasterly winds 10-15MPH. Lows tonight are
expected to fall into the low to mid 60s with light winds. This
south to southeasterly breeze is expected to return for Thursday as
well. The forecast remains fairly dry through Friday with only a
minor 10-15% chance of an isolated storm out of our far southeastern
Nebraska and far eastern Kansas areas.
The synoptic pattern aloft features a somewhat elongated ridge
centered over the Central U.S. A progressive wave moving closer in
from the west should run into the slower eastern U.S. trough,
compressing this ridge further. Higher pressure aloft providing
subsidence (stable/sinking air) with steady southerly winds at the
surface pulling up warmer air from the south, will both help
continue the warming trend and keep our forecast dry through Friday.
Highs will be on their way into the low to mid 90s by Friday
afternoon, currently sitting as the warmest day in our 7-day
forecast. The other feature of note will be the formation of a
surface low pressure trough forming underneath of the difluent exit
region of the approaching mid-to-upper level trough. This feature
will play a major role in the weather for the weekend in terms of
frontogenesis.
Saturday and Sunday...
The next true precipitation chance (40-60%) lies Saturday night into
Sunday. These chances have continued to increase as forecast and
model confidence improves. An upper-level low will be on track to
slip by our northwest over the weekend. This feature will help
provide wide scale assent and destabilization across the area (mid-
level cooling and PVA). At the surface, a cold front should emerge
out from the eastern Rockies, tied to the low pressure center
forming along the upper plains. This front will sweep down from the
High Plains Saturday and Sunday, acting as a lifting mechanism for
storms.
Both the GFS (American ensemble) and ECMWF (European ensemble)
resolve a few storms forming both Saturday and Sunday nights. Though
storms will be possible in parts of the area both nights, the
overall coverage and total number of storms each day will be tied to
the speed of the front. Currently the ECMWF points towards a greater
coverage of storms Saturday night (quicker with the frontal passage)
and the GFS points towards a greater coverage Sunday night (slower
with the frontal passage). In addition, the chance for a few
stronger to severe storms may be possible as storms developing along
the front could take advantage of up 2,500J of MUCAPE in some
places. Despite lower than ideal shear (bulk shear 

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion