Fort Atkinson, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

470
FXUS63 KMKX 021911
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
211 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures climbing well above normal today through the
  weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected Friday and
  Saturday.
- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (~30-60%) return
  for early next week.
- Gusty winds return Sunday. Marine headlines are anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Tonight through Sunday...
Strong high pressure over the eastern US stretching from New
England, southwest into the Ohio River Valley and southern
Appalachians, will continue to promote mostly quiet and dry
weather. Some CAMs depict a bit of 850mb WAA leaning into
central WI from MN/IA tonight, sparking some elevated shower
development. Given the weak CAPE depicted (< 200 j/kg) and a
6000 ft depth of dry air beneath the unstable layer, have opted
to mention sprinkles in favor of light rain/thunder overnight
into early Friday, mainly northwest of Hwy 151.
The strong high is expected to sink south into Middle
Appalachia by Saturday afternoon. While the high remains in
place, a strong ridge aloft will allow for unseasonably warm air
to build over much of the eastern US. For us here in southern Wisconsin,
highs will reach into the upper 80s Friday and Saturday (cooler
by Lake Michigan), and low to mid 80s on Sunday. Dew points
should be comfortable through the weekend and remain in the 50s
to low 60s. The high pressure will also continue to promote
light to moderate southerly winds until a stronger pressure
gradient moves overhead Sunday, leading to gusty southerlies.
Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Given drying
throughout the week, models struggle to depict widespread fog, but a
few patchy areas of ground fog can`t be ruled out nightly.
CMiller
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Sunday Night through Thursday...
Ridging aloft begins to break down Sunday afternoon and the high is
expected to shrink eastward late Sunday into Sunday night. A large
trough is then depicted by long range models to approach the eastern
Great Plains to Minnesota by Monday morning, with a zone of
baroclinicity and frontogenesis forming from the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan southwest into Kansas. This frontal zone then stalls
through at least Tuesday afternoon, before the trough aloft kicks
the front through mid week. While the front is stalled, periods
of showers and storms will occur Monday through Tuesday. EPS
ensembles depict a swath of 60-80% chances for total QPF
through Wednesday >= 0.5 inches, but only 20-30% chances for
total QPF for >= 1 inch (30-50%, and 10-30% respectively from
the GEFS. Bottom line: rain next week is not expected to
completely remove any drought deficits at this time.
The rain and cloud cover along the frontal boundary will promote
cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s on Monday and then low
to mid 60s Tuesday through Thursday following the frontal
passage, which is right around normal for this time of the year.
CMiller
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Expect continuing light southerly winds into tomorrow. While
most of the area should remain dry, a few sprinkles may occur
over central Wisconsin where models depict some elevated CAPE
tonight. Cloud bases around 6000 feet would be possible with any
shower activity. Most of this activity is expected to miss TAF
sites. While widespread fog is not expected overnight, some
ground fog may occur in low lying spots.
CMiller
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Broad high pressure will linger over the east coast of the
United States into this weekend, generally moving southward with
time. Winds will continue from a southerly to southwesterly
direction, with light to moderate speeds through Friday. Winds
are expected to pick up Saturday afternoon as a stronger
pressure gradient moves over the lake between the high pressure
and approaching low pressure over the northern plains.
Gusty south to southwest winds will then continue through Sunday,
with some potential for gales Sunday afternoon over the northern
half of Lake Michigan. Winds should then ease early Monday morning
following the passage of a frontal boundary.
CMiller
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion