Fort Bliss, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

488
FXUS64 KEPZ 220448
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1048 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1024 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Minor impacts due to isolated showers and thunderstorms over
   mountain areas Monday and Tuesday. Above normal high
   temperatures persist until a cold front arrives Wednesday.
- A more dynamic pattern may interact with leftover monsoon
   moisture towards the weekend, increasing rainfall and localized
   flooding chances. Depending on the track of an upper low, the
   pattern may even favor some severe thunderstorms, but forecast
   confidence in the upper low track is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Convection is dying as expected as it moves in from SE Arizona.
Expect a few scattered showers over the Gila and down into the
Bootheel through a little after midnight. An MCV is evident just
east of the Bootheel, but with steady westerly flow in place, this
won`t be much of a player tomorrow as it`ll be east of the area by
morning or have sheared-out by then. Otherwise, expect perhaps
some breezy west winds gusting to around 20-25 mph as an outflow
boundary pushes across southern Dona Ana and El Paso Counties over
the next hour or two.
A shortwave trough moving across the Central Rockies will graze
the northern half of New Mexico tomorrow afternoon. The focus for
convection will be mostly north of our area, but some widely
scattered thunderstorms will affect the Gila into Sierra County,
with a secondary area in the Bootheel region. Outflow and decaying
storms will try to push southeast Monday night, but will most
like diminish to just a few showers before coming close to El
Paso.
By Tuesday, a very complex blocking pattern will be in place
across the western half of the CONUS, with mostly zonal flow
across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Another
shortwave trough will graze northern NM, and a few storms mainly
north of I-10 are expected again in the afternoon.
Mid-week, our block looks more like a classic Omega block, with
the subtropical ridge centered over Sonora, with the ridge axis
extending north into Utah and Idaho. Troughing will shift east
towards the Midwest, and a weak backdoor cold front will push
towards the Rio Grande in its wake Tuesday night, pushing west of
the Continental Divide Wednesday afternoon. A few storms could
develop Tuesday night in the Borderland as the front pushes
through, but upper level support is lacking.
Drier air aloft will limit convection north and east of El Paso,
behind the front, Wednesday afternoon, despite a lobe of colder
air aloft rolling across northeastern New Mexico. Isolated
thunderstorms will be more likely towards the leading edge of the
backdoor front, over SW New Mexico.
As the ridge associated with the Omega Block shifts east late in
the week, and a closed low moves into central California, upper
level moisture will attempt to stream north along the Sierra
Madre and the Continental Divide. This may bring an uptick in the
convection near the Arizona border as early as Thursday, then
slowly shifting east towards the weekend. But much depends on
the path of the closed low. It may swing into southern Arizona,
which would be a good pattern pulling up leftover monsoon
moisture, and adding a bit of fall dynamics and wind shear to the
mix in the Saturday to Monday timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A few leftover showers from earlier convection in Arizona will
dissipate before reaching TCS or DMN. Outflow has brought a few
gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range at DMN, but this will likely
begin to diminish before 06Z. ELP may see similar gusts between
06Z and 07Z.
A slight uptick in convection is expected on Monday, as an upper
level disturbance grazes the northern half of NM. TCS will be the
most likely to see thunderstorms around the area in the afternoon
into early evening, starting around 21-22Z, and lasting through
about 02Z. Probabilities elsewhere will be under 20 percent, with
ELP the least favored.
Otherwise, expect light winds and VFR conditions to prevail.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1032 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
With continued influx of moisture, fire weather conditions remain
relatively unremarkable. An upper level blocking pattern will
bring uncertainty to the precipitation forecast throughout the
week. Storms are likely to favor western zones Monday through
Wednesday before more widespread precipitation enters the
forecast. An enhanced risk of burn scar flash flooding will return
for all recent burn scars by midweek. Minimum RH will stay well
above critical thresholds in the presence of generally light
winds, outside of thunderstorm outflows. Ventilation will trend
poor to fair most areas given the weak flow aloft.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  96  72  95 /   0  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca            62  91  63  91 /   0  10  10  10
Las Cruces               65  91  64  91 /  10  10  10  10
Alamogordo               64  92  63  90 /   0  10  20  10
Cloudcroft               49  69  49  69 /   0  10  20  30
Truth or Consequences    64  90  62  87 /  10  30  30  20
Silver City              59  83  58  84 /  20  30  20  20
Deming                   64  93  64  93 /  10  20  20  10
Lordsburg                64  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  10
West El Paso Metro       70  93  70  92 /   0  10  10   0
Dell City                61  94  64  94 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             68  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  10
Loma Linda               64  87  64  87 /   0  10  10  10
Fabens                   66  95  68  95 /   0  10  10   0
Santa Teresa             66  92  66  91 /  10  10  10   0
White Sands HQ           69  92  66  91 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range            64  91  63  90 /   0  20  20  10
Hatch                    64  94  63  92 /   0  20  20  10
Columbus                 66  93  66  93 /  20  20  20   0
Orogrande                63  90  62  90 /   0  10  10  10
Mayhill                  54  81  55  79 /   0  10  20  30
Mescalero                54  81  53  80 /   0  20  20  30
Timberon                 53  78  53  78 /   0  10  20  20
Winston                  53  82  51  81 /  20  40  30  30
Hillsboro                61  90  59  89 /  20  30  30  20
Spaceport                61  90  61  88 /   0  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             54  84  53  84 /  20  40  30  30
Hurley                   60  86  59  87 /  20  20  20  10
Cliff                    61  90  61  91 /  20  30  20  10
Mule Creek               59  85  58  87 /  20  40  20  10
Faywood                  61  86  61  87 /  20  20  30  20
Animas                   64  90  65  90 /  30  20  20  10
Hachita                  63  89  63  90 /  20  20  20  10
Antelope Wells           63  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  20
Cloverdale               61  85  62  86 /  40  20  10  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion