Fort Davis, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

980
FXUS64 KMAF 040543
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1243 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions continue
  across the region through early next week.
- Slightly cooler temperatures and low (10-40%) rain chances
  briefly return by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Expect another hot weekend, even by our standards. Mid level ridging
breaks down as a strong trough lifts onto the Plains. While this
will lower heights across the area, it will do little to bring
cooler temperatures or a chance for rain. High temperatures will
still reach into the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations. The
most noticeable change will be an increase in southerly winds in
response to leeside troughing. Winds will gust to around 25 mph this
afternoon before diminishing around sunset. Sunday looks very
similar with continued dry conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The Long Term remains relatively unchanged. Winds become more
southeasterly Monday and Tuesday, which will help filter more
moisture into our area. Meanwhile, temperatures decrease a couple of
degrees relative to weekend temperatures, but nevertheless remain 5-
8 degrees above normal (a high of 82 degrees is typical at MAF
during this time period). Increasing moisture, vorticity maxima in
the flow aloft on the periphery of ridging to the east, and a weak
wind shift/diffuse front allow for rain chances to return to the
region Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The best chances (20-40%)
currently look to be over Southeast New Mexico and northwestern
parts of the Permian Basin of West Texas. Lower chances (10-20%)
can be expected for the remainder of the Permian Basin into the
Davis Mountains. The weak front will keep temperatures closer to
(but still just above) seasonal averages Wednesday. This cool off
looks to be short-lived, however, as guidance indicates
temperatures will begin to increase yet again by the end of the
week as upper-level high pressure begins to build back overhead.
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR prevails. Gusty south winds will develop late morning before
diminishing around sunset.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  64  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 89  62  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   90  64  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            89  64  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           80  61  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    86  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    81  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   87  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     89  63  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion