Frankfort Center, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

966
FXUS61 KALY 250000
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will gradually lift northward across the region
tonight into Friday, bringing additional rounds of showers and a
few thunderstorms. A cold front will then move eastward
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with more showers and
some possible stronger thunderstorms with downpours. It will dry
out Friday into the upcoming weekend, with temperatures
remaining above normal as high pressure builds in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- High confidence in a widespread soaking rainfall continuing
  through Thursday evening, with a 60-90% chance for greater
  than 1 inch of rain across the region in 24 hours.
- There is a Marginal Risk(level 1 of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms in parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield
  Counties Thursday afternoon and evening.
Multiple rounds of showers are expected through Thu evening. A
warm front will gradually lift northward through Thu morning,
then a cold front pushes eastward across the region Thursday
evening/night. While there will be some breaks in the shower
activity, there will also be periods of steadier rainfall. The
most significant and widespread surges of rainfall look to be
late tonight into Thu morning associated with the warm front and
Thu afternoon/evening along the cold front. Beneficial rainfall
of ~1.00-2.50" expected in most areas (highest totals SE of
ALB), as PWAT and integrated water vapor transport anomalies are
forecast to exceed +2 to +3 STDEV through Thu evening. Combined
with forcing from the warm/cold fronts and upper level
diffluence east of a positively tilted upper trough over the
Great Lakes, will result in high probabilities for a
widespread/soaking rainfall. NBM probs continue to increase,
with a 60-90% chance of > 1.00" rain and a 40-80% chance of >
1.50" rain. Embedded convective elements will enhance rainfall
rates at times, although the flash flood threat will remain
relatively low due to the antecedent dry soils. This will be a
much needed rainfall for the area.
It will be mild and humid with the very moist air mass in
place. Low temperatures tonight will be well above normal,
ranging from mid/upper 50s in the mountains to lower 60s in
valleys. Humid conditions will remain in place on Thu, although
high temperatures won`t be significantly above normal due to
plenty of clouds/showers around much of the day. Highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will be most common, with dewpoints well
into in the 60s. There is a conditional severe weather threat
Thu afternoon/evening in the pseudo warm sector ahead of the
cold front. The main mitigating factors look to be lack of
appreciable instability (MUCAPE only ~250- 500 J/Kg from HREF)
and poor mid level lapse rates (< 6 degC/Km). Deep layer shear
is impressive around 35-45 kt with clockwise turning hodographs
and low LCL heights. So some storm organization with isolated
wind damage and/or a brief tornado is possible given the
expected environment. SPC did scale back the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) area to just the far southern part of the area
(Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties) given the limiting
factors.
Showers will taper off from west to east Thursday night as the
cold front moves through. After some morning clouds and a few
showers in the W. Adirondacks Fri morning associated with the
upper trough axis, clouds should decrease Fri afternoon as
subsidence increases behind the trough. It will become gradually
less humid with continue above normal temperatures given the
lack of any substantial cold advection. Drier and cooler/less
humid conditions expected Fri night as high pressure builds in
from the north/west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Much of the long term period looks to be dry with above normal
temperatures likely persisting. High pressure looks to be the
dominant feature through early next week, with a mild air mass
remaining in place. A potential cut-off low over the
central/southern Appalachians may bring some showers north into
the mid Atlantic region Sat night into Sun, but should remain to
our south based on the latest guidance.
Guidance indicating a cold front pushing south from Canada will
move across our region in the Tue to Tue night time frame,
which would result in temperatures cooling back down to normal
levels by Wed in its wake. At this time it looks like it will be
a dry frontal passage, so there are no substantial chances for
any rain through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front positioned well to our south in the mid-Atlantic will
slowly progress northward tonight, resulting in continued
stratus clouds and intermittent showers that become more
widespread by 06 - 09 UTC through 12 - 13 UTC from south to
north. Generally expecting MVFR cigs through 12-13 UTC with IFR
likely persisting at PSF and MVFR vis during steadier rain
showers.
The steadier showers lift to our north by 13 - 15 UTC but low
stratus and patchy drizzle or showers persist at all terminals
maintaining MVFR cigs and vis. The next period of steady rain
arrives midday (15 - 17 UTC) through early evening ahead of a
cold front. Expecting MVFR vis and cigs to continue at all sites
before a narrow corridor of moderate to locally heavy rain
arrives from west to east late in the TAF period (21 - 00 UTC)
resulting in IFR vis/cigs. Locally gusty winds are not ruled out
within the heavier rainfall but not enough confidence to include at
this point. Otherwise, light north-northeasterly winds this
evening become easterly and sustained 5-9kts towards morning
before shifting to the south-southeast with gusts reaching up
to 15kts.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion