Fredonia, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

849
FXUS63 KMKX 301948 CCA
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan
WI 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler through Wednesday, with temperatures climbing well
above normal for Thursday through the weekend.
- Isolated to scattered shower & thunderstorm chances (~20-40%)
return Sunday evening through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Tonight through Wednesday night:
High pressure will slowly slide east over the next 24 hours starting
in the James Bay region in Canada sliding into northwest Quebec into
Wednesday then diving straight south into the northeast US Wednesday
evening/night. In addition large scale ridging will remain directly
overhead with the base of the ridge shifting slightly southward into
Wednesday. Outside of some high clouds this will bring quiet
conditions with plenty of sun. The position of the high will bring
largely easterly winds to the region. The flow pattern will keep us
on the cooler side through this period based on the position of the
high and low pressure still to far away to alter wind direction much
at this time.
It is worth mentioning there may be a brief period of High Swim Risk
conditions late tonight for a portion of the nearshore areas and
then again late Wednesday night into Thursday morning
Kuroski
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Thursday through Tuesday:
The CWA will hold high pressure overhead through the early weekend
as the base of the high swings down the eastern seaboard, remaining
expansive enough to encompass southern WI.
However this changing position of the high will allow for southerly
flow to return which will increase temperatures through the weekend
to well above normal. In the upper levels, The upper ridging will
broaden out with the passing of a weak shortwave across northern WI.
This broader ridging will remain in place through at least Saturday
which will help keep us dry through the rest of the week. We cannot
rule out more dense cloud cover with a very slight chance for a
shower Thursday with the passing shortwave but overall the drier low
levels should help keep us dry that day.
Later Sunday into Monday will feature the next best chance for
showers/storms as an upper low swings through the northern Central
Plains into Canada with a surface low moving through the same
region. This itself will not bring the potential as that will most
remain to the northwest. However, the surface low will bring a
trailing cold front through the region Sunday evening.
There will be chances for showers and storms given some upper level
energy, midlevel WAA and moisture and even a weak LLJ.
Latest models have trended drier though and thus we will have to
monitor how things change, particularly with the low level moisture,
which remains dry. Into Monday chances will increase despite the
front being notably weaker, primarily due to increasing low level
moisture. However, weaker forcing and a disjointed moisture column
may then begin to limit what we could see.
Uncertainty increases significantly as we head into the middle of
next week with the upper levels keeping an upper low in central
Canada, another out west and a large scale ridge across southeast
WI. While this is generally understood the minor differences in the
location of these features will certainly impact how we could see
the middle of next week play out.
Kuroski
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Mostly light east to southeast winds into Wednesday with mostly high
clouds expected in the forecast with no risk for low CIGS in the
short term. There will be a chance for pockets of low VSBYs with
ground fog overnight but otherwise VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.
Kuroski
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 250 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Winds will shift to the east overnight tonight as high pressure
area of 30.4 inches will move from northeast Quebec into
northeast US later Wednesday. The high will continue to slide
south down the US eastern seaboard through the end of the week,
allowing winds to turn out of the south Thursday through
Friday. Broad low pressure will form over the northern Great
Plains Saturday, and will gradually attempt to work toward the
upper Mississippi River Valley by the end of the weekend.
Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms return to the
forecast Sunday evening through Monday. Additional chances into
the middle of next week but with a lot more uncertainty.
We will see brief periods for small craft conditions late tonight
and again late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Kuroski
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion