Galesburg, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

426
FXUS63 KILX 082250
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
550 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summertime warmth returns by mid week, lasting through the
  weekend. Probabilities of high temperatures above 90 degrees are
  highest this weekend.
- Rain prospects remain minimal through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
While we have been getting a taste of meteorological fall over the
last few days, astronomical summer is about to remind us that it`s
not over yet.
Winds have been trending more toward the south-southeast today as
the sprawling high pressure pushes more toward the New England
region. The air remains quite dry though, with dew points mainly
in the 40-45 degree range. This will allow for one more relatively
cool night, though not as chilly as the last couple of nights. The
eastern CWA should dip down into the mid 40s, although lows near
50 will be more likely toward the Illinois River Valley.
An upper trough currently over the Dakotas and Nebraska will
drift toward the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Impacts on
our area should be fairly minimal, mainly limited to an increase
in mid and high clouds. With more of a southerly flow,
temperatures should reach the 80 degree range over all of the
forecast area.
Significant ridging takes place over the central CONUS mid week,
gradually edging east late week. All guidance points toward
significantly warmer weather through the weekend, with some
variation in the extent of it. The operational GFS appears to be
overdoing the intensity of the heat. Anomalously high mixing
levels over 10,000 feet, and some over-drying of the soil, would
suggest temperatures near 100F this weekend. Climatology shows
this would be an extremely unlikely occurrence (Springfield
records show only a few occasions of reaching 100 degrees this
late into the year, none since 1953). Additionally, 850 mb
temperatures near 21-22C are at or above maximum sounding
climatology for this area. NBM guidance is lower at 90-94
degrees, though the 50th percentile values at lower 90s may be
more reasonable. The temperature forecast beyond that gets more
complicated, as an upper low cuts off over the Great Lakes. This
has the potential for driving a back door cold front into our area
Sunday night and Monday, reflective by the 10 degree temperature
spreads in NBM box-and-whiskers plots for high temperatures
beginning on Monday. GFS ensembles would suggest it would be a dry
frontal passage if it did occur, while it European counterparts
do have a handful of members that bring some light precip. Nothing
would suggest more than a 20% PoP is needed at this point.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Mostly clear/VFR skies and light southeast winds through Tuesday
afternoon.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion