Gateway, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

025
FXUS64 KTSA 221131
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday or
Thursday.
- An increased chance of severe weather and heavy rains will
arrive late Monday, continuing into Tuesday, with multiple rounds of
storms possible.
- Warm conditions continue today, with temperatures then falling to
near or slightly below normal for several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through much of the
overnight hours as the low level jet carries warm and moist air into
the region. Good low level convergence near a west-east boundary in
southeast OK will continue to focus precipitation. A few isolated
severe storms, mainly for hail and wind, will remain possible,
though the overall trend should be for less severe weather with
time. Locally heavy rainfall could result in some pockets of flash
flooding. Patchy fog may also develop in areas with clearer skies,
such as near the OK-KS border. Low temperatures will mostly be in
the mid 60s to near 70.
Showers and storms will continue Monday, especially across southeast
OK and northwest AR. Overall the intensity and coverage should be
less than yesterday as weak shortwave ridging temporarily moves in.
Afternoon temperatures will be warm, most likely ranging from the
upper 80s in southeast OK to the lower 80s in northwest AR. Some CAM
guidance suggests lower temperatures if low clouds hang on into the
afternoon. This was accounted for by slightly lowering forecast
temperatures beneath NBM guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A robust upper level trough will arrive late Monday into Tuesday.
This trough will feature good upper level diffluence and relatively
strong mid to upper level flow, resulting in sufficient wind shear
for storm organization. A well defined low level jet will also
facilitate good low level warm advection and moisture advection.
Thunderstorms will blossom in this setup, some of which are likely
to become severe. Wind will almost certainly be a threat, with hail
likely in any strong discrete cells. Low level wind fields support
at least some QLCS tornado threat as well. Some of the CAM guidance
shows redevelopment Tuesday afternoon with additional severe weather
possible along and ahead of the cold front. In fact, upper level
flow is even more strongly curved than during the morning storms. If
sufficient destabilization can occur, supercell development could
result in a more significant severe weather event. This potential
will be monitored closely.
In addition to the severe weather potential, the precipitation
Tuesday morning may focus preferentially along some corridor. If
this does occur, training storms would also pose a flash flood
threat. There is uncertainty, but it does appear the most likely
area for heavy rain will be near and north of I-40. In this zone a
widespread 1-3" may fall late Monday into Tuesday, with locally up
to 5" or so. Areas of river flooding may also develop depending on
the rainfall footprint.
Lingering shower activity will continue Wednesday and possibly
Thursday for areas further east, with dry weather for the remainder
of the forecast. Temperatures will cool Tuesday under the heavy
precipitation, with widespread mid to upper 70s by Wednesday. High
temperatures will remain mostly in the 70s to low 80s through the
end of the forecast period. Low temperatures will drop into the 50s
to low 60s. This will represent temperatures near to slightly below
normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Ongoing LIFR conditions across far NE OK will gradually erode by
mid morning. The other early day focus will be the expanding
showers and storms across SE OK spreading into western AR. Overall
coverage and intensity of the morning convection will likely keep
any flight impacts brief. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to
prevail much of the afternoon into the evening outside of a few
isolated afternoon storms. Late tonight a thunderstorm complex
will move into NE OK and possibly spread into far NW AR before
sunrise. These storms will likely produce flight level impacts and
later forecasts will be able to refine timing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  70  83  67 /  10  80  90  50
FSM   83  71  85  70 /  70  50  80  90
MLC   86  73  90  67 /  40  40  70  80
BVO   83  67  81  63 /  10  90  90  40
FYV   80  66  81  64 /  50  70  90  90
BYV   79  66  77  65 /  60  70  90  90
MKO   82  70  82  66 /  30  60  80  70
MIO   81  67  78  64 /  20  80  90  60
F10   84  71  86  65 /  20  50  70  60
HHW   87  71  91  68 /  40  20  40  80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>058.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion