Gem Village, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

657
FXUS65 KGJT 211705
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1105 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms are expected today and tomorrow, although
  coverage looks to be more widespread on Monday.
- Localized moderate rainfall, gusty winds and small hail are
  all possible with these showers.
- Drier air returns Tuesday with the next chances for
  precipitation possible next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Other than a few showers near the Divide where a weak wave of energy
is passing, the weather has been generally quiet early this morning.
Things look to remain relatively quiet until around noon, when PoPs
begin to pick up over the higher terrain north of I-70. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the evening
while moisture lingers. Showers may persist through the night Sunday
into Monday as a system to our northwest propagates towards our
area, bringing upper level support. A substantial plume of moisture
will advect just to our south as the system to our north digs
southward, but the flow around this northern system looks to bring
it`s own moisture to our region on Monday. Maximum PWAT anomalies
increase to 150-175% of normal with Monday`s moisture push, although
the most abundant moisture will be in the northern half of the CWA.
With the synoptic support from the passing system, widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Anomalous PWATs remain across the CWA Monday night and this moisture
will continue to be worked on as the area of low pressure mentioned
above continues to drop southward. Upper level support in the form
of a jet streak will be rounding the base of the low and will
provide plenty of lift, as will the low pressure itself, to keep
showers and a few storms going overnight into Tuesday morning. The
northern and central mountains and foothills surrounding them will
be most favored for these showers/storms. By Tuesday afternoon, the
area of low pressure will have shifted to the Front Range but some
lingering showers will be possible along the Continental Divide from
the central mountains up to the WY border. The remainder of the long
term period will see high pressure set up over the region. It
actually looks more like a quasi omega block but either way
generally quiet weather is expected with mostly sunny skies being
the rule. Temperatures through the period will start out at or just
below normal and warm up to about 3 to 5 degrees above by the end of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A few showers and storms are expected across the northern
valleys this afternoon with little expected elsewhere. Even so,
a quick popup can`t be ruled out over higher terrain. That being
said, did include PROB30 group for KASE, KEGE, and KRIL this
afternoon for -TSRA. Remaining TAF sites will see SCT to BKN
skies through the day as VFR remains in place.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion