Georgia State University, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

704
FXUS62 KFFC 241049
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
649 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
      cold front as it moves through the area.
- Isolated to scattered storms will remain possible this
      weekend, with the highest chances across east GA
- Temperatures will return to near normal across the area by
      Friday and into early next week.
Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across North and
central GA with a developing frontal boundary moving east out of
the mid MS river valley. We will see increased cloud cover from
this front today with precip moving into NW GA by 14z-16z. Will
see some thunderstorms across N and NW GA this afternoon but
instability indices stay fairly weak so not expecting any severe
weather. The frontal boundary finally pushes into NW GA around 00z
Thu and moves slowly SE through Friday. With the frontal boundary
over the region instabilities increases Thu afternoon with Capes
in the 1000 to 1200 J/KG range and LI`s in the -2 to -5 range.
With daytime highs in the 80s we could see some isolated severe
storms. Precipitable water values ramp up fairly quickly also as
this front moves in with 1 to 2 inch vales expected across North
GA Today then across the rest of the area Thu. We could see 1 to 2
inches of precip across the area through Thu evening with N GA
receiving the higher amounts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
On Thursday night, positively-tilted longwave troughing will
extend from the eastern Great Lakes towards the Lower Mississippi
River Valley and will continue to advance across the eastern
CONUS. At the surface, an associated surface low will be moving
northeast towards Maine. A cold front extending southwest from the
low will meanwhile be approaching far north Georgia. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the front as
the period begins. As the front moves south and east through the
overnight hours and through Friday, the highest PoPs and heaviest
rain will gradually shift south and east. The dynamics associated
with the front will be weakening as the parent low continues to
move further away to the northeast, which will inhibit the threat
of widespread severe weather. Still, with 0-6 km bulk shear
between 30-35 kt and SBCAPE values increasing to between 800-1200
J/kg during the peak heating hours on Friday, a few clusters of
storms could become strong to marginally severe, capable of
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Ample moisture will remain in place ahead of the front, with
dewpoints in the low 70s and precipitable water between 1.7-2.1
inches. Because of this, stronger storms that develop will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals associated with
this storm system through Friday are forecast to largely range from
1-2 inches. Locations in the northern tier, particularly in the
higher elevations, could see localized amounts as high as 2-4
inches. Very dry antecedent conditions will help mitigate most
flooding concerns, though there will be an isolated risk for flash
flooding in the urban areas and in the higher terrain in far north
Georgia. With northwesterly low level flow beginning to spread into
the area behind the front and increased cover with the storms, high
temperatures are expected to be near daily normals on Friday, in the
low 80s across the majority of the area.
For the weekend, guidance is trending towards better agreement on
the evolution of the upper level pattern this weekend, indicating an
increasing possibility of a wave break in the longwave trough. While
the northern portion of the trough would continue to move away into
the north Atlantic, the southern portion would develop into a cutoff
low and retrograde over the Southeast CONUS through the early parts
of next week. Because of this setup, it appears that atmospheric
moisture will be in the 50th-75th percentile across much of the
area (per sounding climatology) in spite of drying behind the
retreating cold front. Precipitable water values are currently
progged to be between 1.0-1.3 inches while dewpoints are forecast
to be in the mid to upper 60s. Jet streaks associated with the low
will have the potential to influence convection, which will be
location dependent. The aforementioned moisture and high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s will be sufficient to combine
with available instability to result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday and
Sunday. Thunderstorm chances are forecast to be highest in east
and central Georgia where the greatest moisture is expected.
There is still disagreement in the models on the position and
movement of the potential cutoff low over the Southeast. This will
be important as it may influence the movement of tropical systems
during the early and middle part of next week. The NHC is currently
monitoring two disturbances near the eastern Caribbean and central
Atlantic for potential tropical development. A further westward
movement of the upper low could steer one or both of these system`s
track closer to the Atlantic coast, which would increase atmospheric
moisture and rain chances in north/central Georgia during the early
parts of the week in closer proximity to the system.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Mostly clear skies this morning with increased mid to high level
clouds moving across the state today. SHRA/TSRA move into the TAF
sites early Thu morning with MVFR ceilings and VSBYs. Will see
ceilings get down into the IFR range shortly after sunrise Thu.
Precip will also continue through the day Thu. Winds are light
and variable this morning but will be mainly out of the SW at 8kt
or less.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  69  83  66 /   0  20  60  50
Atlanta         91  71  82  68 /  10  40  80  40
Blairsville     83  65  75  61 /  30  60  90  40
Cartersville    91  69  81  66 /  20  50  80  40
Columbus        94  71  86  69 /   0  10  70  50
Gainesville     90  71  80  67 /  10  40  80  40
Macon           94  71  89  69 /   0   0  50  50
Rome            91  71  84  66 /  30  70  80  30
Peachtree City  91  69  82  66 /   0  30  80  50
Vidalia         94  71  94  70 /   0   0  30  30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion