Girard, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

508
FXUS64 KLUB 141738
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible,
   primarily off the Caprock this afternoon and evening.
- Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through
   the week with the best chances focused overnight Wednesday into
   Thursday morning.
- Temperatures to remain near seasonal normals through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A few remnant scattered showers continue to linger across portions
of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle late this morning, from
previous overnight convection. Much of the short term forecast
remains on track with the previous, with an additional round of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible once again
this afternoon. As the upper level trough begins to eject northeast
and we begin to lose supportive jet dynamics across the region, we
will begin to see PoPs decrease through the late evening/early
overnight period. However, PoPs will remain non-zero for areas along
the southeastern Rolling Plains as a subtle disturbance in the flow
through the overnight period, combined with the increased moisture
in place, may be enough for a few isolated to scattered storms
overnight. Due to the increased moisture in place, with dewpoints
progged in the low to mid 60s, and relatively light winds, we could
see areas of patchy fog development by the early morning hours, as
depicted by forecast soundings. As for overnight lows, expect
temperatures to remain similar to previous nights in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. Headed into the beginning of the work week, the H5
synoptic pattern displays a pair of weak closed lows, wobbling
across the Intermountain West, while an amplified upper ridge
stretched from the Rockies into the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile
off the east, a larger scale trough is parked across the Mississippi
River Valley. Temperatures will remain similar to what we saw this
weekend, thanks to near stationary thickness and height values
across the region, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Although
conditions are expected to remain dry for most, the moist upslope
component to the wind along with subtle disturbances tracking
through the NW flow aloft may provide enough moisture and lift for a
few isolated to scattered storms to develop, primarily off the
Caprock. The overall severe threat remains low given the lack of
large scale forcing and instability in place, although a locally
strong wind gust cannot be ruled out.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Main theme of the extended is the chance for daily afternoon showers
and thunderstorms, with the best shot looking to be during the
overnight Wednesday into Thursday time period. The upper level
pattern remains tricky and congested through much of the extended
period, as the pair of upper level lows across the Intermountain
West continue to wobble into the Canadian provinces before shifting
through the High Plains, where we will begin to see the breakdown of
the already weak upper level ridge as it shifts east. Through the
period, flow aloft over the FA looks to remain northwesterly at
best, which will allow for those isolated to scattered storm chances
to remain in tact Tuesday with similar temperatures to Monday
expected. As the upper level trough begins to dig into the High
Plains Wednesday, that is when it looks to bring some potentially
wetter conditions to the FA as an H5 jet tracks into portions of the
northern Texas Panhandle and an associated front attempts to make
its way through the FA. Unfortunately, models are all over the place
with the evolution of this system which leads to a pretty low
confidence forecast. Although, ensembles are in agreement that this
system could bring another round of beneficial rainfall and slightly
cooler temperatures through mid-week. Therefore will opt to maintain
NBM slight chance to chance PoPs at this time until we see some
better agreement in the models. As this system shifts east through
the end of the work week, we will see the return of the upper level
ridge out west, which will likely lead to the return of warmer
conditions through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A broken deck of low clouds will remain in place through at least
the next several hours with conditions likely to fluctuate between
MVFR and VFR through most of the rest of the afternoon at both LBB
and PVW. Conditions are then expected to improve to VFR across the
entire region by about sunset this evening. Some isolated TS may
develop mainly to the east of LBB/PVW and near CDS this afternoon,
but confidence in direct convective impacts to any terminal is too
low to add thunder mention at this time. Late tonight through early
Monday morning, visibility restrictions from BR/FG will be possible
along with a possibility of IFR CIGs especially at LBB and PVW, but
confidence in timing and coverage of these conditions is still quite
low.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion