Gladstone, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

496
FXUS63 KMQT 241114
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
714 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mostly dry and low impact weather pattern with near to above
  average temperatures holds into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Early morning GOES WV imagery shows a longwave trough extending from
far E Canada down through the Four Corners, with an embedded upper
level low now over the Straits of Mackinac; a ridge is building over
the NW CONUS. At the sfc, a high pressure ridge is analyzed from the
N Plains through the Upper Midwest and over N Ontario/Quebec. This
results in the UP being under cool NNE flow. The radar is quiet and
cloudy skies have mostly filled in overhead, so current temps mainly
in the 50s are not expected to settle much further this morning.
Available webcams and sfc obs have been limited with fog coverage,
likely due to the light winds, but patchy fog is expected along the
W spine through around sunrise.
The remainder of today will be near normal in the upper 50s to 60s.
Skies over the W will begin to scatter out this afternoon, but
isolated -shra and cloudy skies persist over the E into tonight as a
sfc low tracks to the SE. Despite this sfc low lifting over the
Lower Great Lakes through Thu, dry weather is expected to persist
tonight through Thu. With the clearing early on and drier airmass
present tonight, cooler temps are expected in the 40s to low 50s,
coldest interior W; additional patchy fog is possible in the W.
Temps warm above normal into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Thu.
Attention then turns to an incoming cold front from the NW. This is
expected to drop SE overhead Thu night into Fri, trailing from a
deeper sfc low over Hudson Bay. Moisture and instability are
unimpressive with this front, but a few isolated showers can`t be
ruled out. Probabilities for accumulations are low...EPS/GEPS: 30-
70% for at least 0.01" (higher values in N-Central terrain) and 10-
20% for 0.1", GEFS: 0% for 0.01". Regardless of any -shra being
realized, impacts will be low as breezy winds and slightly cooler
temps are the only likely results. Otherwise, temps settle Thu night
in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warming up near normal on Fri in the
60s to low 70s.
A rinse and repeat is anticipated, this time on Sat as a sfc low
travels from N Manitoba out over Hudson Bay and sends another cold
front across the region. This round has even lower probabilistic
values for precip. High pressure builds back in on Sun, extending
over head through early next week as it shifts to Quebec. Alongside
this, ridging aloft builds over the Great Lakes supporting a warmer
and drier pattern into next week. Highs warm above normal in the
upper 60s to 70s. More opportunities for clear skies under high
pressure at night provide better support for radiative cooling
processes, so lows in the 40s to 50s are expected.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 713 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Conditions will vary over the early morning hours from IFR to VLIFR
due to low clouds and fog. Fog and clouds will lift mid to late
morning with VFR conditions expected thereafter, through the rest of
the day. Light winds and abundant low level moisture will introduce
the fog threat again for tonight which could result in IFR/LIFR
conditions at CMX and SAW. Light, southerly downslope winds
developing at IWD this evening could limit the fog potential there.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Light N to NE breezes over the E half approach 10-15 kts through
early this afternoon before settling back below 10 kts by tonight.
This keeps significant waves across the lake below 2 ft through Thu
morning. Then, SW winds increase over the W half of the lake to 15-
20 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds veer N to NE behind the front,
increasing to 15-25 kts across the lake for Thu night into Fri. As a
result, expect 2-3 ft waves across much of the lake Thu night and
Fri. Winds settle back below 15 kts by Fri afternoon as a weak high
pressure quickly passes overhead. A similar pattern repeats on Sat
as another cold front presses across Lake Superior, but this time
winds behind the cold front will be W. High pressure then builds
back over the lake on Sun, holding overhead into early next week
keeping winds around 20 kts or less.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jablonski
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...Jablonski

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion