Gladwin, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

198
FXUS63 KAPX 121050
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
650 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain/storms possible late tonight into Saturday
- Summer-like weather likely next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Broad omega block-type pattern across the US...with positively
tilted trough axis stretching across the western US...and elongated
broad troughing across the Eastern US/East Coast. As would be
expected...strong south/southwesterly flow and subsequent warm
advection into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. A bit of energy
stalling out behind the ridge over Alberta...while additional energy
trickles down the front of the ridge through Manitoba/Ontario. Bulk
of the moisture across the CONUS is beneath the ridge, with some
convective activity swirling around its perimeter...though some
decent moisture sneaking into eastern Canada in the wake of the
trough axis. At the surface...Hudson Bay high pressure still hangs
on behind a (weak) cold front draped from central Michigan eastward
into New England...with high pressure across the Gulf coast states;
warm front (as expected) stretching from a low in ND through central
MO. Cold front drapes across northern Canada as well with
aforementioned energy trickling down into Hudson Bay.
General ridge axis remains over the region today, though remnants of
upstream convection near MN to trek into the area this
afternoon...with some subtle height falls as flow becomes a bit more
N/NW with time into tonight...as energy over Manitoba/Ontario sinks
southeastward. Expect this will drive the better chances for
precipitation into the region late tonight into Saturday.
Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:
Rain/storm chances, esp tonight... Not impossible the upstream
activity zipping in today could perturb things enough to squeeze
some showers out of the atmosphere today, especially across the
Yoop...though it may be dry enough aloft to preclude much, if
anything, reaching the ground. Better chances for rain/storms move
in late tonight, especially after 6z...ahead of the next niblet of
PV approaching the region. Think this will be rather quick moving
for us...and there are some signals that the low and mid level
moisture will be somewhat displaced from each other, which could
limit activity to some degree. For now...best forcing appears to
remain across the central UP and NW Lower tonight into early
Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Days 2-3 (Saturday-Sunday)...
Trough axis will continue to drop southeastward
Saturday...ultimately hanging a boundary across the Upper Midwest
Saturday night into Sunday...most likely to our west. Western trough
energy ejecting into the central Plains Sunday should shove a sharp
ridge axis over the Upper Great Lakes.
Initial showers/storms Saturday should remain largely focused across
NW Lower into SW Lower...and not impossible the bulk of the rainfall
could end up staying to our south/southwest if current forecast
ideas hold. This being said...there are signals for a training setup
to develop across some part of the region Saturday afternoon with
theta-e advection into a potential strengthening boundary parallel
to upper level flow (guidance hinting at some NW-SE oriented fgen
maxes through a few different layers). Potential fgen wildcards
could be enough to keep some swaths of heavier rain a threat
Saturday, and probabilistic guidance does hint at some low-end (25
percent or less) potential for 1-inch of rain (or more) in 6hrs
through the afternoon...so it is worth keeping an eye on, even
though best chances are most likely to our southwest.
Otherwise...expecting reasonably quiet conditions for the remainder
of the weekend...with potential for fog development again as a col
region slips in for a time, keeping lingering low-level moisture
trapped in the vicinity...and have suspicions that we may well end
the weekend in a very similar pattern to the last few days (partly
cloudy and generally dry with patchy fog overnight).
Days 4-7 (Monday-Thursday)...
Warmer days ahead....
Sharp ridge axis and increasing southwesterly flow across the Upper
Midwest suggest a warming trend is in store next week...as a lobe of
energy makes a run through the Upper Midwest, most likely staying
just to our west. It may take some time for better moisture to pivot
into our area...particularly noting signals for surface high
pressure to set up over eastern Canada/New England...which could be
enough to keep moist advection at bay till perhaps midweek or
beyond. In the interim...certainly possible many areas could make a
run up into the 80s again for the middle of next week, barring
convective debris that could otherwise hurt our diurnal heating
chances...though it could certainly become a little sticky and
summer-like again. For reference...record highs for mid September
across our area are generally in the mid to upper 80s (except
Traverse City, sitting pretty with record highs in the 90s).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
IFR/LIFR conditions in fog/stratus are ongoing at MBL/CIU. This
moist layer is shallow at MBL, and will burn off quickly after
12Z. CIU will probably take an hour or two longer. VFR for the
rest of the day. Tonight, clouds will increase from N to S. This
should make harder to see fog tonight, but MBL is still pretty
likely to see IFR/LIFR conditions return at times. Shower
chances will arrive at CIU/PLN/TVC/MBL very late tonight. Light
winds.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion