Glenbeulah, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

658
FXUS63 KMKX 032004
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
304 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonable, summer like temps in the mid to upper 80s today
  and again Saturday. Record highs were met today, and may be
  met again tomorrow.
- Dry conditions through the weekend, but scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (40-70%) return early next week with a
  cold front passage.
- Gusty winds along the Lake Michigan through the weekend will
  bring small craft conditions later Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Tonight through Sunday:
Strong high pressure over the eastern US stretching from New
England, southwest into the Ohio River Valley and southern
Appalachians, will continue to promote mostly quiet and dry
weather.
The strong high is expected to sink south into Middle
Appalachia by tomorrow afternoon. While the high remains in
place, a strong ridge aloft will allow for unseasonably warm air
to build over much of the eastern US. This afternoon, record
highs were broken in Madison and Milwaukee as of 2PM, with highs
in excess 86 degrees. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow,
as the ridge will remain in place and the airmass will remain
unchanged. The record high of 87 at Madison may topple, although
the record high of 88 at Milwaukee may struggle to be broken due
to some potential for afternoon winds off of Lake Michigan.
Dew points should be comfortable through the weekend and remain
in the 50s to low 60s. The high pressure will also continue to
promote light to moderate southerly to southwesterly winds
until a stronger pressure gradient moves overhead Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, leading to gusty southerlies.
Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Given drying
throughout the week, models struggle to depict widespread fog, but a
few patchy areas of ground fog can`t be ruled out nightly.
One more day of unseasonable temps is expected Sunday with highs
in the low to mid 80s as the ridge begins to lean over further
east.
CMiller
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Sunday Night through Friday:
No major changes to forecast expectations for early next week.
Ridging aloft begins to break down Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night and the high is expected to shrink eastward late Sunday
into Sunday night. A large trough is then depicted by long range
models to approach the eastern Great Plains to Minnesota by
Monday morning, with a zone of baroclinicity and frontogenesis
forming from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwest into
Kansas. This frontal zone then stalls through at least Tuesday
morning, with models depicting rain moving out a bit quicker,
clearing by Tuesday afternoon.
While the front is stalled, periods of showers and storms will
occur Monday through Tuesday. EPS ensembles depict a swath of
slightly lower 50-70% chances for total QPF through Wednesday
>= 0.5 inches, but only 10-20% chances for total QPF for >= 1
inch (20-40% and 0-10% respectively from the GEFS). Total QPF
remains in question but ensemble odds favor total QPF around at
half inch through Tuesday evening.
The rain and cloud cover along the frontal boundary will promote
cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s on Monday and them
mid to upper 60s following the frontal passage, which is right
around to slightly above normal for this time of the year.
CMiller
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Expect continuing VFR overnight into tomorrow, save for some
patchy ground fog overnight. Winds will remain light overnight
become breezy with some gusts up to 20 knots out of the
southwest tomorrow.
CMiller
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Broad high pressure will linger over the east coast of the
United States into this weekend, generally moving southward with
time. Winds will continue from a southerly to southwesterly
direction, with light to moderate speeds through the rest of
today into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to pick up
Saturday afternoon as a stronger pressure gradient moves over
the lake between the high pressure and approaching low pressure over
the northern plains.
Gusty south to southwest winds will then continue through Sunday,
with some potential for gales Sunday afternoon over the northern
third of Lake Michigan. Have held off on a Gale Watch at this
time, as the overall speed of winds have come down slightly with
this round of forecasts, but trends will be monitored for a Watch
going into Saturday.
Winds should then ease Monday morning following the passage of a
frontal boundary.
CMiller
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...4 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645...1 PM Sunday to 7 PM
     Sunday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion