Glenhayes, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

510
FXUS61 KRLX 170615
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and any lingering mountain showers will gradually
dissipate through the day. Dry and warm weather then expected
to end the week, with limited rain potential early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...
The main `impact` in our CWA of the coastal low spinning over
eastern Virginia will continue to be some increased cloud cover
through the morning hours. However, the clouds are forecast to
erode from west to east later today as the coastal low starts to
pull away to the northeast and some drier air and ridging moves
in from the west. Any shower chances this morning into early
afternoon should be limited to the northeastern quadrant of the
CWA, and even then we generally keep them 20 percent or less.
Dew points were dropped a bit again for the Ohio Valley counties
into SE Ohio, where earlier sunshine and some encroaching dry
air around 700mb could allow for more dry air to mix down than
much of the model guidance is depicting. Relative humidity
values in those areas likely to drop into the 30s once again.
Highs today should again be mainly upper 70s to mid-80s for
lower elevations, and mid-60s to mid-70s in the higher terrain.
Clearing and dry tonight, with some valley fog again possible,
and lows in the 50s for most of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...
We return to unseasonable warmth for mid-September to round out
the week as upper-level ridging moves over the region, bringing
abundant sunshine. Highs on Thursday will be 80s for most of
the lowlands, and could get near 90 degrees for the Huntington
Tri-State area. The higher elevations should see highs mainly
in the 70s. For reference, normal highs this time of year at our
climate sites range from mid-70s at Beckley to around 80 degrees
for the lower elevation sites. Overnight lows should continue
mainly in the 50s across the CWA, which is roughly near normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 AM Wednesday...
The old forecaster adage that `drought begets drought` seems
very applicable to our area of late. Through a combination of
dry air and entrenched high pressure being hard to dislodge, as
well as previously promising rain chances in the longer-range
model data gradually disappearing like a fading memory, we can`t
seem to catch much of a break from the persistent dry weather.
This seems to be increasingly the case for the forecast early
next week. What initially appeared several days ago to be some
promising rain chances over the weekend has been gradually
getting pushed later and later, with probabilities dwindling, as
well.
Indeed, looking at some NBM statistics, the probability of even
a measly 0.01" of rain in a 24-hour period anywhere in the CWA
is under 25% through at least Monday night, and may only start
to creep higher during the day Tuesday. That said, with an
encroaching trough and potential for weak disturbances to ride
up along , somebody, somewhere, will likely fulfill that 25%
chance at some point in the first half of next week. But at this
point, the chance for a drought-busting or even drought-denting
rainfall appears to be effectively nil.
With reduced rain chances and less cloud cover early next week,
and now no expected frontal passage, the temperature forecast
has been creeping upwards, and highs may not cool off much
compared to the end of the current week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...
The broken mid- to high-level clouds over the CWA should again
limit if not outright block fog chances tonight, so VFR
conditions are forecast through the period. Gentle afternoon and
evening breezes are expected from the north and northeast today.
Clearing skies and calming winds tonight may allow for fog
formation, but most if not all of that should be after the end
of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None expected.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              WED 09/17/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in areas of valley fog late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion