Goessel, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS63 KICT 100819
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
319 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms possible this morning and into the
  afternoon hours with additional low chances on Thursday
  morning.
- Warming trend through the week and into the weekend.
- More storm chances late Saturday through Sunday with next
  frontal boundary.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Currently, the upper level ridge axis is situated just to our west
with troughs across the Great Lakes and the Pacific coast. A complex
of thunderstorms in southwest Kansas is feeding off of low level WAA
and is marching eastward early this morning. This MCS will continue
to progress along the nose of the LLJ with a slight southeasterly
motion, but a general weakening trend is anticipated as the
convection approaches south-central Kansas.
For the rest of today, this morning`s convection will leave a
remnant MCV across the area. This will be the focal point for
additional showers/storms through the late morning and into the
afternoon. Current thinking is this activity will not be very strong
as instability and shear will be lacking. As this feature pivots
over central and eastern Kansas, we could see some slow-moving
storms. With PWATs in the neighborhood of 1.5", heavy rain or
localized flooding would be the main concern. Model consensus sets
up this activity moreso across eastern Kansas, though a slightly
westward solution could place that heavy rainfall potential over
central Kansas who are still recovering from the flooding of a
couple days ago.
Temperatures will remain relatively moderated today with cloud cover
and possible precipitation limiting overall warming. Highs this
afternoon will warm into the lower to middle 80s. As we continue
through the end of the week, the ridge to our west will continue to
build back over the region. This will support the warming trend with
temperatures soaring past seasonal norms through the end of the week
and into Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
With the top of the ridge axis centered overhead through tomorrow,
we could see additional low rain chances tonight/Thursday morning as
another small perturbation in the pattern passes across the region.
Towards the end of the weekend, a deep, though not incredibly
strong, trough will shift into the Plains beginning on Saturday
night. A weak frontal boundary will pass through the Plains bringing
rain and thunderstorm chances to the area on Saturday night/Sunday
morning. The trough will displace the ridge further south and east
and will act to moderate our temperatures closer to normal for this
time of year with highs in the middle 80s expected for Sun-Tue.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The main concern to aviation will be showers and thunderstorms
as they approach from the west late tonight. There is
uncertainty in timing and coverage so went with a PROB30 at all
sites. Activity is expected to start in central KS at RSL and
GBD then continue east/southeast to the other terminal sites.
The main impacts would be gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected through
this TAF period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...GC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion