Gorman, California Weather Forecast Discussion

292
FXUS66 KLOX 251011
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
311 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...25/245 AM.
A cutoff trough of low pressure off the Central California coast will
wobble back to south through tonight. A cooling trend is expected
through the weekend as the trough will linger over the area for
several days. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue
into next week. A deep marine intrusion will make low clouds and
fog a staple of the forecast with the possibility of night through
morning drizzle. Clouds may struggle to clear from the beaches
each day. Showers chances will continue across the interior
portions of the area and over the mountains and desert.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...25/241 AM.
The latest satellite imagery show a weak cutoff low pressure
system sitting off the Central Coast of California this morning.
Most of the shower activity with the trough sits over northern
California and the northern portion of the San Joaquin Valley. The
marine induced low cloud field is getting a little more organized
from earlier in the night. The trough will serve to deepen the
marine layer depth over the next several days and nights. The
latest AMDAR soundings from KLAX indicate a 600-700 foot deep
marine layer depth currently, likely sloping up to around 1200
feet deep along the Central Coast. If NAM BUFR time height section
play out as advertised, the marine layer depth across the
Southland should deepen to near 1500 feet deep later this morning.
The rapid deepening could allow for patchy drizzle to develop as
early as this morning. With the marine layer depth likely
deepening to between 2000 and 2500 feet deep tonight and into
Friday morning, there is a better chance for drizzle or light rain
as the marine layer deepens and interacts with the trough`s
dynamics aloft. A deep marine layer depth will likely remain in
place through at least Saturday.
As the cutoff trough over the San Francisco Bay area wobbles back
to the south through today, shower activity should start to
increase again. High-resolution multi-model ensemble members
advertise a low-to-moderate chance for measurable rainfall across
the northern and interior portions of San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara Counties, and Ventura County mountains today. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, but
ensemble members keep the highest lightning flash densities to the
north of the region. PoPs break away from NBM values for this
afternoon and evening, but with any changes in the track of cutoff
trough, some variances could develop. Shower chances remain in
the forecast through the weekend over the mountains and desert as
the cutoff will linger and keep enough instability in place.
A general cooling trend will likely persist into Saturday across
the region as cooler air is transported southward and the marine
intrusion will deepen. There is a chance that low clouds could
struggle to clear from the land mass each day on Friday and
Saturday as the marine layer deepens. A mix of clouds and sun is
possible along the beaches during the afternoon hours.
A northerly surface pressure gradient will tighten some across the
region this afternoon and evening. Breezy to gusty northwest to
north winds will develop across southwestern Santa Barbara County,
through the Interstate 5 Corridor, and into the western portion of
the Antelope Valley. Local advisory level wind gusts are possible
through the Interstate 5 Corridor and into the western portion of
the Antelope Valley, but the highest chance of advisory level
winds will be for southwestern Santa Barbara County. A wind
advisory has been issued from late this afternoon through early
Friday morning. The strongest winds will likely occur west of
Goleta out to near Gaviota. People planning outdoor activities
such as camping, boating, or kayaking should keep the possibility
of gusty and strong winds in planning as these winds could develop
rapidly.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...25/240 AM.
Shower activity will likely linger into Sunday across the
mountains and desert. If the upper low moves too far to the east,
there is a chance that storms will stay to the east of the area.
Otherwise, a cooler weather pattern will likely linger into Sunday
with below normal temperatures. Low clouds and fog could clear a
bit better on Sunday versus Friday and Saturday.
Another trough of low pressure, broader in nature, will move
through the Pacific Northwest early next week. A trailing frontal
boundary will move into northern California, weakening and dying
as it heads down the state. EPS and CMC ensemble members favor a
wetter forecast versus the GEFS member solutions. While highest
chances for any rainfall will be for northern California, light
rain or showers cannot be ruled out for San Luis Obispo and
northern Santa Barbara Counties. Temperature will very likely fall
below normal through at least midweek. NBM values were left in the
forecast for the current time, but there is a good chance that
PoPs could be higher along the Central Coast and temperatures
could be cooler than forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...25/0728Z.
At 0629Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 1300 feet with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight cat
changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, and conditions may be 1 flight
category higher than forecast at any time.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds may not arrive
until 10Z tonight. When clouds do arrive, cigs will be between
OVC003-OVC015 overnight. No  east wind are expected.
KBUR...High confidence in forecast.
&&
.MARINE...25/308 AM.
For all the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest
winds are expected this afternoon into early Friday morning. Seas
will build, peaking at around 7 to 9 feet on Friday.
Across the inner waters north of Point Sal and the Santa Barbara
Channel, SCA winds are likely this afternoon into evening. The
strongest winds are likely near Point Conception and San Miguel
Island. Otherwise, there is a small chance (20 percent) of local
SCA gusts across the San Pedro Channel this afternoon. This
weekend into early next week, southerly swell up to 5 to 7 feet is
likely to impact the coastal waters south of the Channel Islands.
&&
.BEACHES...25/256 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will develop across the
coastal waters this weekend into early next week, generated by
Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents and elevated surf are
likely for south-facing beaches across Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Additionally particularly vulnerable south-facing
beaches may see some low-to-moderate coastal flooding impacts. A
High Surf Advisory and a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed for
the peak of the event (Sunday through Tuesday).
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Hall/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion