Grantsboro, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

229
FXUS62 KMHX 211119
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
719 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front has pushed through the mainland with the
boundary stretched offshore. A weak wave of low pressure will
travel along this boundary to the NE. High pressure dominates
through mid week before another low pressure system moves in from
the west late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 0700 Sunday...Shortwave trough axis aloft overhead swings
through the FA briefly backing upper level winds this afternoon
to become more zonal while high pressure continues to build in
from the NNE in the wake of the backdoor cold front that passed
through last night. Weak wave of low pressure travels along the
boundary offshore well E of Hatteras. Carry a dry forecast
through the period though offshore showers may approach OBX,
with a nonzero chance of seabreeze allowing more vigorous
upward motion in the lifting cloud cover from this morning to
drop some precip, but subsidence aloft should squash any
appreciable rainfall accumulation. Breezy NEerly flow and cloud
cover keeps us a tad bit cooler than the past couple days, low
80s NE mainland, mid 80s SWern zones, upper 70s OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 0245 Sunday...Southern stream shortwave aloft approaches
from the SW, gradually turning the zonal flow more SWerly while
cutoff low slides toward Great Lakes. Weak wave along offshore
boundary continues to trek NEward with SFC high continuing to
build in from the NE. Expecting cloud coverage to increase again
overnight with low level stratus developing as nocturnal
inversion sets up as well as upper level clouds drifting in from
the Gulf. Offshore showers and tstorms near GStream may again
threaten the coast, but continue mostly dry forecast. MinTs low
60s inland, mid 60s Inner Banks, upper 60s OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12:30 AM Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Warming trend through mid-week
- Pattern becomes more unsettled starting Wednesday
An upper ridge will build into the area to start the period. At the
surface, high pressure will spread south across the eastern CONUS
with a stalled front offshore. Increasing heights will start a
warming trend that will last through mid-week. Highs on Monday will
range from the low-80s across the coastal plain to the upper-70s
along the OBX where NE flow will keep things a touch cooler. By
Wednesday, highs will be near 90 across the coastal plain and near
80 at the beaches. Outside of some isolated seabreeze showers near
the coast on Monday and Tuesday, the rest of the area should remain
dry.
The upper level pattern will become more interesting by mid-week as
a trough digs across the central plains and becomes cutoff east of
the Rockies. The eventual strength and movement of this feature will
greatly impact future surface features, but guidance agrees on it
being slow to move across the plains and then lingering over the
Ohio River Valley through late week before moving on towards the
eastern CONUS next weekend. This broad troughing across the eastern
CONUS will support daily shower and thunderstorm chances across ENC
through the end of the period. As of now, highest PoPs are on Friday
and Saturday (40-50%).
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12Z MONDAY/...
As of 0715 Sunday...IFR/LIFR flight cats currently due to low
level stratus right off the deck. This will scour out through
the morning so carrying TEMPO groups for the next hr or two with
VFR prevailing through the bulk of the day. NE winds gusting
15-20 kts inland, 25 kts along the coast thanks to a tightened
pressure gradient. Rinse and repeat for tonight with widespread
IFR or lower expected due to low level stratus again.
LONG TERM /Monday through Midweek/...
As of 1 AM Sunday...
Daytime VFR conditions should persist through early next week,
although chances for late night/early morning fog and low stratus
will be possible. The pattern becomes more unsettled by mid-week
with greater PoPs bringing increased chances for sub-VFR conditions
through the rest of the period.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through TONIGHT/...
As of 0715 Sunday...Current conditions NEerly winds 10-15G20kt
inland with coastal waters showing 15-20G25kt and waves 4-6ft.
Backdoor coldfront has sunk south through the mainland with the
boundary dragging about 20-30nm offshore. Gradient tightens
between the SFC high building over the mainland from the NE and
front offshore. No additions/subtractions to active SCAs in
effect, though their start and end times have been massaged.
Expect convection through the period where the front meets the
Wern periphery of the coastal trough while weak wave of low
pressure travels NEward and out to sea along the boundary
through tonight. Inside of 20nm is expected to be mostly dry but
can`t rule out showers/storms drifting toward the coast from NE
to SW. Seas 4-5ft in short wind wave periods ~5sec out of NE on
top of weak 1-2ft swell from distant Gabrielle @ 12-14sec.
NEerly winds ease some through the overnight, but still
remaining 10-15G20kt.
LONG TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
As of 1:50 AM Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Elevated seas and longer period swells from distant Gabrielle
NE winds at 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt on Monday will decrease
to 5-10 kt and veer to the SE Tuesday-Wednesday. Although Gabrielle
will remain far from our coast, seas will be 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds
on Monday. Seas will begin to subside Monday night with waves
expected to be 4-5 ft at 11-12 seconds by Tuesday evening and 3-4 ft
by Wednesday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...CEB/OJC

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion