Grenelefe, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

040
FXUS62 KTBW 200004
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
804 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A couple thunderstorms continue across Levy County where the flow
and shape of the coastline allowed the sea breeze to propagate
inland and collide with the west coast sea breeze. Meanwhile, a
couple weak, low-topped showers have popped up in Lee County thanks
to slightly deeper moisture and a weak push that created a very
subtle boundary. All of this activity is continuing to wind down,
however.
Overall, dry air is winning out. Most of the area is looking at
clearing or clear skies tonight. This favors a fairly nice night,
and a pleasant start to the day tomorrow. The forecast remains on
track.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 802 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
With the probability of convection at less than 15% across SWFL and
less than 10% elsewhere, there is no mention in TAFs for tomorrow.
However, a couple weak showers did pop up in the vicinity of FMY and
RSW this evening. If a shower develops, it would most likely be
after 21Z tomorrow, and should remain shallow enough that lightning
should be no factor. Moisture gradually increases Sunday and into
early next week, with a higher potential for impacts by Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Drier air will remain in place across the area through the weekend
with an upper trough to the west of the state and high pressure
ridging down the state at the surface. Upper shortwaves move over
the area for Monday/Tuesday, with moisture returning and weak
troughing developing over the state. This lifts off to the NE and
weak ridging builds over the area at the surface and aloft with a
cold front approaching the state by next weekend. Only a few stray
showers mainly south are expected through the weekend. Pops
increase into the scattered range for Monday through much of the
week with the highest chances south. Highs remain generally in the
lower 90s through the period, with lows ranging from the upper 60s
to mid 70s through the weekend, then shifting to generally 70-75
for the work week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
No headlines expected through the period. Winds will generally be
from the NE AOB 15 knots, with a turn to the N/NW in the
afternoons near the coast as a weak sea breeze develops. Rain
chances will be low through the weekend, and then increase some
for Monday and beyond.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Higher dispersions will be possible this afternoon and Sunday.
Drier air in place will allow for only a stray shower or two south
in the afternoons, but relative humidity values will remain well
above critical values.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  93  74  92 /   0  10   0  10
FMY  73  92  74  91 /  10  10   0  20
GIF  72  93  72  92 /   0  10   0  20
SRQ  72  91  72  91 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  69  91  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
SPG  75  90  75  89 /   0  10   0  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hubbard

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion