Grimsley, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

019
FXUS64 KOHX 201710
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1210 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Above normal temperatures continue, with daytime highs in the mid
  80s to mid 90s into mid-week next week.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, with more coverage
  Sunday and early in the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Guidance is showing isolated storms this afternoon and into the
evening hours, as the ridge we were sitting under continues to
retreat to the south and west. Winds will become predominantly
southerly this afternoon, advecting more moisture into the region.
Coupled with upper level disturbances, our rain chances will
increase for this weekend and remain elevated into the work week.
Concern with the isolated storms today is heavy rainfall, as storm
motions look to be weak according to forecast soundings. With air
temperatures as warm as they are and inflow of moisture, could there
be strong storms that pose a small hail and gusty wind threat as
well? Yeah I`d say it`s possible, but more likely on Sunday than
today.
Sunday appears to have a boundary of some sort move through
(timeframe late tonight - early Sunday morning) with precipitation
associated with it in guidance. Sunday will also feature increased
precipitation in the afternoon and evening timeframe, with more of
that risk of stronger storms that I mentioned above.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs in the mid
90s through the weekend. As we start the work week, things will
start to cool down, but not without costing us our sunny days.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A pattern change is in the works for the work week. A few
disturbances accompanied with the increase in moisture will make the
beginning of the week rainy and cloudy. The good news is things will
cool off a bit with highs in the 80s. A more impactful trough will
make its way into middle Tennessee in the middle of the week,
intensifying the rainy pattern with higher coverage of precipitation
across the area. Hopefully, this will bring some much needed relief
to our drought stricken areas, but it`s a bit early to tell
specifics like timing, intensity, etc.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions today with increasing mid and high level clouds.
There is a very low (10%) of a popup shower or thunderstorms
between 23-4z. Quiet overnight with VFR conditions continuing. A
decaying line of scattered thunderstorms will approach the
northwest part of the area after 11z. This will bring a 30% chance
for thunderstorms for KCKV. There is some uncertainty on how the
line holds together east of KCKV. Addition scattered
thunderstorms chances are expected Sunday after the TAF period.
Light southerly winds up to 5 knots. Gusty winds up to 40 mph will
be possible with any thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  91  69  89 /  10  40  20  60
Clarksville    66  90  66  89 /  20  50  30  70
Crossville     62  82  63  81 /   0  30  20  50
Columbia       66  91  66  89 /  10  30  20  50
Cookeville     65  86  65  84 /  10  30  20  60
Jamestown      63  84  64  82 /   0  30  20  60
Lawrenceburg   65  90  66  87 /  10  30  20  50
Murfreesboro   66  91  67  89 /  10  30  20  50
Waverly        66  89  65  87 /  20  40  30  60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion