Grinnell, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

750
FXUS63 KGLD 130546
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1146 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Expect above normal temperatures (90`s) and breezy (25-35 mph)
  SSW to SW winds today. A cooling trend will follow, this
  weekend.. with highs in the mid 70`s to lower 80`s by Sunday.
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will return to the region
  Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Severe thunderstorms
  capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are
  possible.
- The beginning of next week looks to bring back warm
  temperatures around 90 and daily chances for storms and severe
  weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Morning observations have shown a few showers in the region, with
clearing skies across the Tri-State area. With the clear skies and
ridge overhead, we remain on track to warm into the low to mid 90s
this afternoon. The surface low has been relatively broad across the
area, but should still deepen and tighten the pressure gradient
across the area. With this, winds should strengthen to around 15-20
mph with gusts to 25-35 mph.
This afternoon and evening, showers and storms remain forecast to
develop west and south of the area, and move roughly northeast.
However, any shower/storm that moves into the area will likely fall
apart fairly quickly with dry air through most of the air column.
This is why no thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the area,
in spite of the surface low providing a strong convergence boundary
across most of the area. A wind gust between 50-65 mph may occur as
showers decay, but the threat for severe weather today remains near
zero.
Tonight, the upper trough that has been over the Western United
States is forecast to begin shifting east. As it does so, it is
forecast to push all the moisture along the Front Range and over the
Rockies into the Plains. This should at least increase the cloud
cover over the area as the night goes on. With the cloud cover, most
of the area should see temperatures linger in the 60s and 70s. Fog
chances remain on the low side as even with the moisture advection,
it is currently forecast to not be enough to saturate the low levels
(unless skies clear and temperatures cool rapidly).
Tomorrow, the upper ridge is forecast to continue to shift east
through the Four Corners region and closer to the area. As it does,
it is forecast to continue to push moisture over the area,
especially in the mid-levels. This will keep the area under partly
to mostly cloudy skies for most of the morning and afternoon hours.
Showers and maybe a few storms will be possible during the morning
and early afternoon hours due to the increase in saturation and with
the surface low keep convergence zones in the area.
Tomorrow late in the afternoon and evening, the upper trough is
forecast to move close to the area while the surface low deepens and
creates a strong convergence zone. Based on the current forecast,
showers and storms should fire up west and south of the area and
then push east across the area. With the strong forcing in the area,
storms may become strong to severe as they form and progress. That
being said, the instability may be too low for any severe storms
depending on how long the prior cloud cover and showers linger. If
there is enough instability, then all hazards will be possible. In
most cases, the environment would just support marginal levels of
each hazard. That being said, if we get more low level moisture
advection and/or more sunshine during the afternoon, significant
severe weather could be possible.
Tomorrow night, instability should lower through the night while the
upper trough axis swings through the area. With this, storms
intensity and coverage should decrease as the night goes on. That
being said, the trough axis swinging through may cause the surface
low to wrap on itself and allow for training storms. If storms do
train, there will be a risk for some flash flooding. Otherwise, the
area should have some cooler and drier air try to advect in and
allow temperatures to drop into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Sunday remains forecast for some showers and storms to move through
during the morning as the upper trough axis finishes swinging
through the area. With the system swinging through and the area
transitioning more to the backside of the surface low, some colder
air should be able to move in and help keep temperatures more in the
70s and 80s. We will need to watch for another chance for severe
storms later in the afternoon as the surface low may remain
wrapped on itself in the Plains and keep a frontal boundary over
the area. If this happens, storms are forecast to fire up in an
environment that would support severe weather. Currently,
locales along and east of Highway 83 are favored.
The early part of the week is forecast to be a continuation of what
we have seen recently with an upper trough moving into the Western
United States. With the trough upstream, some higher level moisture
should provide some cloud cover and small chance for rain.
Temperatures should also warm again into the 80s and 90s.
Late Tuesday and into Wednesday, the upper trough is forecast to
move more over the Plains and allow a cold front to move through the
area. On top of a more organized chance for rain late Tuesday, the
front will allow for cooler temperatures likely in the 70s for Wed-
Thu.
Friday and into the weekend, the area may go into either split flow
or ridging from the west. This should allow temperatures to be near
to above average again with low chances for storms.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
The warm conveyor ahead of an upper level trough in the Four
Corners Region is resulting in widespread VFR cloud cover
(around FL080 to FL100) and scattered showers in eastern CO and
southwest NE late Thursday evening. As this shifts east
overnight, there will be a low (10%) chance for a shower at GLD,
but otherwise only mid-high level clouds. Also shifting east
later during the night/early Friday morning will be the 45 kt
LLJ impacting MCK with LLWS.
Some guidance is hinting there may be a stray shower or storm
during the morning, with the highest chances (10-15%) at GLD,
but confidence was too low to add a mention in the TAF at this
time. Greater confidence in scattered to numerous showers and
storms will arrive during the late afternoon and evening as a
strong convergence zone develops beneath a shortwave impulse
lifting through the area from southwest to northeast. While the
precise timing of lightning impacts at each terminal remains
ambiguous, the 21z-04z period features the greatest overlap
among the highres models, hence a PROB30 was added during this
time. The environment will favor gusty winds with this activity,
though confidence was not high enough (particularly in a
direction) to add this to the PROB30 group just yet. Outside of
storms, south-southwest winds will be stiff during the afternoon
and evening, especially at GLD where the drier low level
airmass will favor deeper mixing; 25+ kt gusts are expected to
be common.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Bumgardner

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion